The population census has rolled the US back to the Great Depression era.
The US census is markedly different from similar statistical surveys in other countries. Its main purpose is not fresh data for ministries but balance in the lower house of parliament, and it counts not only US citizens but also legal and illegal immigrants. The survey covers all those who reside in the US for any extended period, while legal US citizens who are abroad for work or other reasons are not counted by their home state. The only exceptions are civil servants who are stationed outside the country due to their duties.
The data of census participants is strictly confidential. No one – neither enumerators nor Census Bureau employees – is allowed to disclose the information provided to them, except for the total number of US residents and other statistics. The details of the census will only be made public after 72 years, when most of its participants will no longer be alive.
Even the FBI does not have access to them – the last time the Bureau of Investigation was able to view fresh data on US residents was in the 1940s. At that time, lists of 'potentially dangerous citizens' were compiled based on census data, but such practice was soon banned as unconstitutional. In fact, it is the reliable protection from disclosure that allows enumerators to easily interview illegal immigrants, who would otherwise face deportation.
General information on the census results is released as it becomes ready. The first report is provided no later than nine months after the completion of the citizen survey, i.e., by the end of the year. It contains the main result of the census – changes in the allocation of seats in the House of Representatives among states based on their population.
For example, the latest report did not bring any particular surprises, but only pointed out already obvious trends. Population growth in the South remains high, explained not so much by birth rates as by immigration. The population of Northern states is growing slowly due to a general decline in birth rates. In Michigan, for instance, the population even decreased for the first time in 100 years.
Thus, in April 2010, the US population was 308,745,538, which is only 9.7% more than ten years earlier. Such low demographic growth was observed only in the surveys of 1940 (7.3%) and 1990 (9.8%) – in other decades, the US population grew by at least 11%, and sometimes by 15-20%.
A bit of state-by-state statistics. The absolute leaders are Texas and California, with an increase of about 4 million people in each state. Florida's population grew by more than two million over ten years. In relative terms, Nevada grew the most – over 35 percent. However, this figure looks less impressive considering that the previous two decades the 'Silver State' grew by more than 50%.
Since the overall US population has increased over the last 10 years, there are not many states that lost residents. Michigan – minus 0.6%, equivalent to 50,000 people; Puerto Rico lost 2.2% of its population (82,000 people).
Due to uneven population growth, some states lost seats in the House of Representatives, with the main blow hitting the Democratic North. The aforementioned Michigan, the cradle of the US auto industry, lost one seat; New York and Ohio lost two each; Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Massachusetts also each lost one representative in parliament.
The leader in redistribution was Texas, the home state of the penultimate US president, which gained four representatives. However, with its 36 seats, Texas is still far behind California, which sends 53 congressmen to the House of Representatives. In total, the lower house of the American parliament has 435 members.
To whom the census brought cakes and pastries, and to whom bruises and bumps, is a difficult question. On the one hand, the states that lost seats are mostly those where the Republican Party's positions are traditionally not strong. On the other hand, even without census data it can be said with confidence that population growth in Southern states came mainly from Latinos. Those of them who are full US citizens usually prefer to vote for socially oriented Democrats, and as a result, conservative states could lean significantly to the left.
The version of the Latino contribution to the census was supported by the thoroughly Republican resource Fox News, which devoted a critical article to the study. It mentions the main complaint about the census – the determination of the number of representatives of the American people in Congress in a given state is made based on the state's population including illegal immigrants, that is, those who have no right not only to vote in America but even to be there at all. According to the Center for Immigration Studies, there are currently 10-12 million illegal immigrants in the US – a whole Pennsylvania or half of Texas.
More detailed conclusions can only be made after the publication of an additional census report scheduled for February 2011. In general, the Census Bureau predicts that by 2050, every third US resident will have Latino roots, and Americans of European descent will remain a minority. In 2000, the picture was completely different: three-quarters of white Americans versus 12.5% from South America and the same share of US residents with African roots.
Pavel BORISOV.
