Canada should not expect a record number of immigrants during the pandemic
As noted in a publication by Russian Toronto, it is obvious that COVID-19 could not help but affect the immigration sphere. This was clear from the very beginning, so over a year ago, in an article about the prospects for immigration to Canada during the pandemic, we wrote that maintaining the same level and form of immigrant intake during this period no longer made any sense, and that Canada's immigration policy should be changed.
Roughly the same thing was written and said by other immigration experts throughout the past year. However, the Liberal government decided to do things its own way, and at the end of October 2020 announced plans to accept a record number of immigrants.
According to the announced plans, Canada is to accept 1.3 million new residents over the next three years. The government did not specify why such a number of immigrants is needed when the economy is shaky and the labor market is shrinking.
The only reasonable explanation for these plans is that there is a need to somehow legalize the huge number of foreign students who come to study in Canada and leave considerable amounts of money here solely to later obtain permanent resident status in Canada.
If these students are not legalized, the government could face serious problems in the form of lawsuits and billion-dollar payouts. It should be particularly noted that among immigrants processed under economic programs, the majority are precisely foreign students, so their legalization is quite pressing.
And here we encounter the first problem. Under the current scheme, after completing their studies, a student receives an open work permit. With such a permit in hand, they must find an employer and work for one year, after which they can apply for permanent resident status. Alternatively, depending on the program, it may be sufficient to simply find a job without needing to work a full year, but having a job in Canada is a mandatory condition.
Due to COVID-19 and the economic crisis, finding a job in Canada has become significantly more difficult. As a result, many graduates are forced to be unemployed, without means of subsistence, and without prospects of obtaining permanent resident status in the foreseeable future. How the government will manage in this situation is still difficult to say.
Problems have also affected those who successfully completed the immigration process and received immigration visas while outside Canada. These are typically immigrants who managed to get a job offer in Canada or who qualify under family sponsorship programs. This category faced problems due to travel restrictions and the inability to enter Canada with the immigration visas they had obtained.
It is worth recalling that upon successful completion of the immigration process, only immigration visas with a limited validity period are issued first. With this visa, the immigrant must enter Canada, and at the border, based on these immigration visas, they will be granted permanent resident status.
If this is not done and they fail to enter Canada in time, the immigration visa is canceled and the immigration process must be started anew. As of the beginning of 2021, about 10,000 people found themselves in this situation, and their number is growing.
Canada promises to resolve this issue, but Canadian bureaucracy is in no hurry, and people are forced to remain in the dark for months about whether their visas will be extended and when. Naturally, many in such a situation abandon the idea of moving altogether.
There is another problem, also quite expected. Among new immigrants, the number of those leaving Canada to return home has noticeably increased. New immigrants are usually those who have lived in Canada for less than five years. According to published statistics, their number decreased by 4% in 2020, although in previous years it grew by 3% annually. Apparently, in 2021, the decline in new immigrants will be even more noticeable.
The reason for this outflow is quite understandable – loss of work and inability to find another. Given that many sectors of Canada's economy are currently in deep crisis and there is no hope for a quick recovery, the outflow of new immigrants will likely become a sustained trend for the next few years. Judging by past experience, many who have left Canada will not return, especially given that a rapid economic recovery is not expected.
Finally, due to COVID-19, a problem has arisen with the speed of processing applications and issuing immigration documents. Almost all government workers were transferred to remote work during the pandemic, including immigration department employees, which naturally affected the speed of document processing.
How the government plans to solve this problem is still unclear. Apparently, new employees will be hired, especially since this would have been necessary anyway to fulfill the new ambitious plans. However, training new employees takes time, especially in a work-from-home environment, so improvements in the work of immigration authorities are unlikely this year.
Summing up, we can say that overall the situation with immigration to Canada looks far from rosy, which is quite expected. Against this backdrop, the Liberal government's plans to increase immigration appear completely detached from reality, especially given that in their current form they make no sense, not to mention the serious obstacles to their implementation.
Undoubtedly, much will depend on the development of the pandemic situation, primarily when we can return to normal life. For now, amid the current uncertainty, it makes no sense to give any forecasts or advice. Consequently, to understand what to do and how to act, we need to wait a bit.