Changes in immigration policy from Harper's government are expected both in Canada itself and far beyond its borders
The main upheaval in Canada's immigration policy in recent times was the change in the procedure for the immigration process under the Skilled Worker category and the introduction of requirements to match the list of priority occupations (List 38), which occurred at the end of 2008.
These changes coincided with the onset of the global economic crisis, which promised to be a serious test, and the political crisis that erupted in Canada in December 2008, which could have led to the removal from power of the current government formed by the Conservative party. After 2008 ended on such a high note, 2009 promised turbulent changes. However, everything turned out exactly the opposite – the year was surprisingly calm. Or rather, stagnating, since the maintained status quo did not lead to problems resolving themselves, but only postponed their resolution.
Apparently, the new year is exactly the period that may bring some serious changes. What kind? Unfortunately, we can only speculate on this, as there is no reliable information yet about what the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration plans to do in the near future.
Skilled Worker Category and List 38
The key question is: should we expect any changes regarding the abolition or modification of the list of priority occupations (List 38)? The answer seems obvious – yes. It has been written many times that this list is completely out of touch with reality and that the very approach to selecting immigrants based on it is highly controversial. The culmination of the criticism was the report by Ms. Sheila Fraser, who holds the position of Auditor General, published in the fall of 2009, in which she sharply criticized the immigration policy of the Conservative government. In particular, she specifically noted that List 38 was adopted without any serious study and that the consequences of its application were absolutely not calculated.
It is worth adding that the new procedure for applying for immigration to Canada with preliminary approval at the single center in Sydney so far appears ineffective, despite the allocation of substantial budget funds for the operation of this center and the involvement of significant human resources. In particular, it is impossible to make a final conclusion about how well the applicant's actual duties correspond to the duties of the occupations on List 38 based solely on the application, without supporting documents. Therefore, as a result, the procedure itself contains a potential for refusal for candidates who could actually meet the requirements of List 38. And conversely, it allows for a positive outcome for candidates who do not meet List 38.
By the way, embassies are well aware of this problem. I particularly want to note the following – the opinion that has recently developed among those starting the immigration process that obtaining a positive decision in Sydney almost automatically leads to visa issuance is fundamentally wrong. Not to mention a number of other factors that could lead to refusal, the final decision on whether you meet the requirements of List 38 will be made at the embassy, as the embassy states in its letter. In this regard, the necessity of the single center in Sydney's involvement in the immigration process raises many questions.
As a result, two important points are obvious at the moment.
First: the list of 38 priority occupations requires either abolition or serious revision and expansion, given its detachment from the realities of Canadian life. Signals that such changes were being prepared appeared in both the spring and summer of 2009, but nothing has happened yet. Should we expect them this year? In my opinion, definitely yes, especially after the publication of Ms. Fraser's report.
Second: the very procedure of preliminary screening of applications in Sydney looks at least ineffective. In theory, it should face the same fate as the now-canceled Simplified Application process, which was also ineffective and only created extra work for embassies and applicants.
Provincial Programs
It is also worth mentioning federal and provincial programs. One of the directions in which the Conservatives are changing Canada's immigration policy is the transfer of candidate selection functions to the provinces. Again, a very controversial position.
In particular, the same Ms. Fraser (Auditor General) specifically noted that transferring the functions of selecting candidates for immigration to Canada to the provinces leads to a decrease in the overall quality level of immigrants. However, the main point that renders provincial programs meaningless is that provinces have no real mechanisms to retain the immigrants they have selected.
As an example, the province of Alberta, which in recent years due to economic growth (following the boom in the oil and gas industry) was one of the main destinations for immigrants, has now become a place from which a mass exodus is observed. In 2009, for the first time in 15 years, the inflow of population into the province became less than the outflow.
Therefore, until mechanisms for retaining immigrants in the province are developed, provincial immigration programs are ineffective. At the very least, they should be thoroughly revised, as Ms. Fraser pointed out in her report.
Should we expect changes
Now about what determines whether there will be any changes in the immigration sphere. It is worth saying that Harper's conservative government rarely admits its own mistakes and reacts quite harshly to threats to its power. In particular, one of Stephen Harper's latest decisions to suspend parliament for almost three months is very indicative, which immediately sparked a wave of accusations of dictatorial tendencies. However, in my opinion, this only shows that Stephen Harper is a politician who knows how to firmly hold his course, no matter what. Therefore, if there is no great need for it, the Conservatives are unlikely to make any serious changes in the immigration sphere.
What could push them to do this? The main motive may be the need to secure voter support in case of an early election. After the fate of Harper's government hung by a thread in December 2008, and only the decision of Canada's Governor General to suspend parliament and the conciliatory policy of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff saved him from being removed from power, 2009 was a fairly calm year for Stephen Harper. Most importantly, the economic crisis that broke out in the fall of 2008 promised a deep recession and a sharp deterioration in the country's economic condition. This did not happen. Moreover, it seems that a serious illness turned out to be a mild cold. Undoubtedly, all this played into Stephen Harper's hands and helped him get through 2009 quite calmly. The question is whether this year will be as successful for him?
Much depends on how the economic situation develops in the new year. Although all indicators suggest that the global economy is recovering, and the prospects for the Canadian economy are quite rosy, there is a feeling that the crisis has not gone away and is only waiting for a moment to show itself in full force. If this happens, then Stephen Harper's government will find itself in a far from favorable position. In addition, stimulating the Canadian economy resulted in a large deficit in the country's budget, and this will still have serious consequences for the Conservative government, especially if the economic situation worsens in 2010.
Another factor is that opposition parties are regrouping and preparing for a power struggle. The fact that such attempts were not made in 2009 only suggests that the struggle for power should unfold in 2010, which in turn means a fight for voters' votes, among whom there are many former immigrants. In this regard, one can definitely expect some changes in immigration policy.
What changes can be expected
Undoubtedly, the most important is what is noted in Ms. Sheila Fraser's report. Stephen Harper, despite his strict adherence to his course, understands well when and in what to make concessions. The immigration sphere is not so key to his policy that he cannot make changes, especially when the struggle for voters' votes is underway. Therefore, at a minimum, we should expect changes to the 38-list. Personally, I highly doubt that the pre-screening procedure for applications at the single center in Sydney will be canceled, but changing and expanding the list of priority professions looks like the most realistic and long-awaited event. Most importantly, this is the easiest and least painful way for the Conservatives to show that they are responding to criticism.
Given that rumors of such changes have been circulating all last year, including statements by the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration about impending changes that were supposed to be announced in early fall 2009 (and were not announced), it seems that some serious initiatives are being prepared in the depths of the ministry, which are constantly being adjusted. I repeat, the simplest and least painful would be to change and expand the 38-list.
However, it is possible that the changes will be more radical and will affect not only the federal Skilled Worker program. In particular, provincial programs may also undergo changes. It would be logical to expect stricter control over the issuance of work invitations and the establishment of more stringent requirements for candidates who go through these programs.
When could this happen? It seems to me, at any moment. Perhaps even in the near future. Currently, rumors are being discussed in the Canadian press that Stephen Harper is preparing a reshuffle of his cabinet, and resignations, appointments, and transfers to new positions should follow soon. The fact that he suspended parliament for almost the entire winter period indirectly confirms this – a regrouping of forces is underway, and the government needs time to do this in a calm environment.
As a rule, during such reshuffles, the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration of Canada also changes. Usually, this is followed by some changes in immigration policy. Therefore, if changes in the government do occur and Canada gets a new Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, new initiatives should be expected soon. Moreover, it is quite possible that these will be some kind of radical changes.
What to do
Since changes in the immigration sphere concerning the Skilled Worker program can occur at any moment, all this makes prospects for proceeding under this category very uncertain. Nevertheless, I would advise those who score the required number of points and meet the requirements of the 38-list to submit their application as soon as possible. Although I assume that the 38-list should simply be expanded to include many more professions, nevertheless, one should not delay, as the list may be replaced by another, excluding a number of professions (for example, removing medical positions as the most controversial).
For those who currently do not meet the requirements of List 38 but have the necessary points, I recommend improving your English and waiting for changes to the list of professions. As I noted earlier, such changes may occur quite soon.
I would like to draw particular attention to categories such as Entrepreneurs and Investors, i.e., the business class. Currently, for those who have experience in running or managing a business and cannot qualify under the Skilled Wlorker category (do not meet the requirements of List 38), these categories are a real alternative. It should be noted that those applying under the business class are not required to take a language proficiency exam (IELTS or TEF), which is very important for many busy people, as preparing for language tests requires a significant time investment. Most importantly, at present, processing times for business class applications are comparable to those for the Skilled Worker category, although until recently they were significantly longer.
I also would like to point out that the federal business program has fairly lenient requirements that a business immigrant must meet. Even 15-20 years ago, when this program was introduced, the requirement to have 300 thousand dollars in personal funds (for the Entrepreneur category) was relatively lenient. Currently, when prices for almost everything have increased, sometimes several times (for example, real estate in Toronto has at least doubled over this period), these amounts have become much more accessible to a wider range of people (especially when it comes to countries of the post-Soviet space). In this regard, I do not rule out that the requirements for business immigrants regarding their personal funds may be changed upward significantly.
In particular, provincial business programs already have much stricter requirements in these parameters, against which increasing the amounts of personal funds under federal business programs seems a logical step. Therefore, while federal immigration business programs still have fairly lenient conditions regarding your cash savings, it is worth taking advantage of this opportunity.
In conclusion, I will only repeat that so far there is no more or less definite information about upcoming changes, nor about when they will occur. Everything described above is only an analytical forecast. We will monitor the situation, and as soon as any news appears, we will promptly inform our readers.
Elena Ryabinina.
«Russian Toronto»