China intends to shift to encouraging childbirth
According to Expert Online, the new draft of the civil code being prepared by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will not include articles related to family planning. A publication about this appeared in the country's main newspaper, People's Daily. This is not only a 180-degree turn in demographic policy but also an interesting paradox. Being socialist nowadays only in name, China will return in terms of fertility to a well-forgotten past: the times of the "Great Leap Forward" and the "Cultural Revolution."
Back then, Comrade Mao Zedong himself called for having as many children as possible: after all, the more Chinese, the more gravediggers of capitalism. But already by the end of the Great Helmsman's life, the party began attempts to curb the unbridled population growth, which continued despite famine, repression, and irresponsible economic experiments. And after Mao's death, with the start of reforms, implementing the slogan "one family, one child" became an obsession for the state.
The assessment of a local leader's effectiveness depended on the population size in their region. An unplanned child could easily ruin the career of any Chinese, no matter how high a post they held. The consequence of the uncompromising struggle of the PRC leadership against high birth rates was the emergence of a modern population registration system, perhaps not the most perfect, but covering an unprecedented number of people. Nevertheless, even it cannot properly answer how many millions (two, three, or maybe all ten) were "ghost people" – unregistered children, mostly from rural areas, whose birth parents concealed from the authorities.
The demographic battle led to China becoming the world champion in the number of abortions: the centuries-old tradition that a family must have a son to care for parents and perform rituals for ancestral spirits was still honored by the Chinese, despite everything. The tradition backfired some time later when the country also faced a shortage of women. The status and importance of girls soared to the skies, as did the significance of non-Han peoples.
In past years, Manchus, Koreans, Miao, and other ethnic minorities of the country willingly registered as Chinese. But when their families were allowed to have more than one child, a reverse process began: Chinese registering as non-Chinese. In short, the battle against overpopulation led to a host of unexpected consequences and a deep psychological trauma for the entire nation, but it was won by the authorities. And now the time has come to pay the price of victory.
Today, China ranks first in the world not only in population size but also in the number of elderly people. Their number in 2014 exceeded 15% of the population for the first time, and by mid-century, if the demographic trend cannot be reversed, according to UN estimates, it will rise to one third. This means an increase in the retirement age (discussions about this in China are in full swing), and healthcare costs will also rise.
All this cannot but affect the high rates of economic growth – the key to maintaining political stability in China. The ideas of socialism with Chinese characteristics may not enjoy universal support in the country. But as long as the Communists can ensure economic growth, and hence the growth of the people's well-being, there will not be too many people willing to challenge their right to be in power.
There is only one way out: to increase the birth rate. Chinese are already allowed to have two children, and the official press is seriously discussing the idea of punishing childless couples. The problem is that the average Chinese household now considers it possible to have a child only at a certain, fairly high income level, often above average. Moreover, if Chinese families want to have a child, they want only one.
And many do not want children at all. They, like many in Europe, believe that it is much more pleasant to spend money on their own comfort and career than on improving the demographic situation in the country. By the way, this lifestyle fits perfectly with the party's new line aimed at stimulating consumption.