Some professions will soon become unnecessary in Germany
Risk group: drivers, translators, bankers
The driving forces of transformation are digitalization and automation of processes, as well as technological changes associated with the growth of electromobility. Holmar Schneider, director of the Bonn Research Institute for the Economics of Labor, observes this trend: "The days of heavy physical labor are essentially over. We are increasingly engaged in mental work."
Simple tasks that do not require high qualifications will increasingly be taken over by robots and computers – or such work will be poorly paid. "And we have come a long way in this. What could be automated has already been automated," he states in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
Robotics is already widely used in industry and warehouses. Global changes are ahead in logistics: if a truck is still driven by a human, with the development of autonomous transport, such a need will disappear. Over time, drivers will no longer be needed. The same applies to taxi or Uber services.
Sociologist Roland Verwiebe from the University of Potsdam is confident that many jobs will cease to exist, but not only low-skilled workers should worry. "Digitalization is an epochal breakthrough. It will also affect activities that currently require a good education," the professor believes.
As an example, the scientist cites the profession of translator, which is gradually being replaced by online services such as Google Translate or DeepL. Lawyers may also potentially lose their jobs, as clients can obtain legal information through automated systems, as well as bank employees.
Where there will be more jobs
"Germany is in the midst of change and will feel it even more in the future," the sociologist predicts. At the same time, the country risks falling behind others. The coronavirus pandemic has revealed a number of weaknesses, especially in public administration. Health authorities were often overwhelmed and relied more on faxes than modern means of communication to track infection chains. And in schools, the digital competencies of students and teachers leave much to be desired. But digitalization is not the only threat to jobs.
According to expert forecasts, the development of electromobility will cost nearly 200,000 jobs in the German automotive industry over the next four years, as the production of electric motors and transmissions is less labor-intensive. This conclusion is reached by scientists from the Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
Earlier studies estimated labor market losses even higher. At the same time, new jobs will be created in the production and servicing of electric vehicles, the number of which will exceed those lost. New vacancies will also arise in other sectors of the economy.
According to the consulting firm Deloitte, by 2035, about 2.1 million jobs will appear in professions where specialists are difficult to replace with technology – mainly in healthcare, education and training, as well as management and administration.
Dependence on foreigners
Those who lose their jobs due to digitalization will not be comforted by this, since their qualifications are often insufficient for such vacancies. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the share of low-paid jobs in Germany is very large: every fifth worker receives the minimum wage or slightly more. In Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, or France, this figure is half as low.
The solution is seen in improving education. According to estimates by the Boston Consulting Group, about 800,000 employees in the automotive industry alone will soon need new skills. The well-being of an aging German society will also depend on labor migrants. "This requires new concepts for attracting highly qualified specialists. The existing ones are not enough," notes Hilmar Schneider. And much depends on politicians.
Recall that in 2020, access to the German labor market was eased for specialists from non-EU countries. Workers in skilled trades can now also find employment in Germany if their diploma is recognized in Germany and they have a job offer. It is also allowed to come to the country for six months to look for a suitable vacancy.
Whether labor migration will be further simplified depends on who joins the new government coalition. Its likely participants – the liberals and the Greens – advocate for modernizing migration legislation, including further easing of visa procedures for work in Germany, as well as recognition of professional qualifications.
In particular, the Alliance 90/The Greens party proposes a flexible points system to assess the demand for a foreign specialist based on an annual analysis of the labor market situation and, as a bonus for foreigners, the opportunity to obtain German citizenship after five years of legal residence in Germany. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) advocates for the introduction of a "blue card" for workers without higher education, as well as the selection of candidates for relocation to Germany according to the Canadian model.