The scenario they developed, of course, does not claim to be infallible. And the authors warn that it is based on the assumption that current trends in fertility, mortality and migration flows will continue. Moreover, even under these conditions, they calculated four options: the most favorable, the most unfavorable, a variant that excludes migration, and, finally, the most probable one, which they call the "baseline".
Over the next two decades, its population is expected to increase by 13 million people, from 456.8 million on January 1, 2004 to 470.1 million on January 1, 2025. Moreover, this growth will be ensured mainly by the influx of immigrants, since from 2010 the average mortality rate in the EU countries will exceed the average birth rate. "Fresh blood" from other countries will compensate for this growing gap until 2025, when a decline is expected. The population of "Europe-25" will begin to gradually decrease and will fall to 449.8 million by January 1, 2050 - about 20 million less than in 2025.
At the same time, situations in different states are often directly opposite. Currently, the population is declining in seven countries: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. By 2025, it will begin to decline in six more: Italy (from 2013), Germany and Slovenia (from 2014), Portugal (from 2018), Greece (from 2020) and Spain (from 2022). In total, by 2050, negative growth will be observed in 20 of the 25 EU member states. The last to embark on this path will be Great Britain and France (in 2040 and 2042, respectively). In the second half of the century, the population will continue to grow only in Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden.
Between 2004 and 2050, the biggest losses will be suffered by the new EU countries: Latvia (-19.2%), Estonia (-16.6), Lithuania (-16.4), the Czech Republic (-12.9), Hungary and Slovakia (both -11.9), Poland (-11.8). On the contrary, it will increase in Luxembourg (+42.3%), Ireland (+36.0), Cyprus (+33.5), Malta (+27.1).
In absolute terms, the population of Germany (-7.9 million people), Italy (-5.2) and Poland (-4.5) should decrease the most over this period. The largest increase is expected in France (+5.8 million), Great Britain (+4.7) and Ireland (+1.5).
The general trend for the European Union towards population decline, hidden behind these surprisingly diverse figures from country to country, is particularly alarming when comparing them with data reflecting its aging.
According to statisticians' forecasts, the share of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) in the "Europe of twenty-five" will decrease by 2050 from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7%, that is, it will fall by 52 million people - from 306.8 million to 254.9 million people.
By mid-century, it will be the lowest in Spain and Italy (52.9% and 53.5%), and the highest in Luxembourg, Malta and the Netherlands (from 61.3% to 60.7%).
At the same time, the number of people of retirement age (over 65) will significantly increase - from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050. In absolute terms, their number will almost double - from 75.3 to 134.5 million. The most unfavorable situation will be in Spain (35.6%), Italy (35.3) and Greece (32.5). The most prosperous from this point of view will be Luxembourg (22.1%) and the Netherlands (23.5).
The number of people over 80 will almost triple. Now they make up 4% of the population in "Europe-25", and in 2050 their share will reach 11.4%. It will be highest in Italy (14.1%), Germany (13.6) and Spain (12.8).
As a result, the old-age dependency ratio (the percentage ratio of the number of people over 65 to the number of people aged 15 to 64) will increase from the current 24.5% to 52.8% in 2050. Taking into account the child dependency ratio (the ratio of the working-age population to children under 15), the total dependency ratio in the 25 EU countries will increase over this period from 48.9% to 76.5%. This means that if today there is one child or elderly person per two working-age people, then in 2050 this proportion will be 4 to 3.
Valery SHASHKOV.
Europe magazine