Innocent victims
The situation with tourism for countries bordering Iraq is indeed difficult. According to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, in March 2003 the number of foreign tourists in Antalya halved - only 126 thousand guests arrived at the airport of this city (in the same period last year - 230 thousand). Moreover, these are data on vacationers from all countries. Tour bookings are being canceled en masse and, most likely, a number of Turkish hotels will not even be reopened after the winter.
According to Russian tour operators, the volume of bookings for Egypt has now fallen by 80-85% compared to last year's level. Instead of fifteen Il-86 flights a week, a few "Tupolevs" fly there - that is quite enough. In Egypt itself, due to the decrease in tourist flow, the cost of staying in a 3-4-star hotel has now fallen from $20-30 to $3-7 per day (without airfare, meals, etc.)! Although there have been worse times for Egyptian resorts: for example, in 1997, when Islamic terrorists shot a bus with German tourists in Luxor, accommodation was made completely free. They made up for it, however, on other things - on the cost of additional services. By the way, this is exactly what tour operators are warning about now: if you are tempted by a cheap tour to Egypt, then be prepared for car rental, water sports, excursions and everything else to be prohibitively expensive.
The United Arab Emirates have suffered undeservedly. "This is a completely safe country, the standard of living there is very high, and no unrest is possible there," tour operators assure. Nevertheless, the tourist flow to Dubai has now fallen by about half, and the cost of hotel accommodation has decreased by a third.
It is still difficult to judge how long-term the impact of the war in Iraq will be on the tourism business. Apparently, the phase of active hostilities in this country is coming to an end, and some experts believe that in the next month or two everything will return to normal. "If hostilities in Iraq end quickly and the conflict does not spread to neighboring countries, then the tourism business will soon return to normal. People will go to Dubai and Antalya again, and prices will return to last year's level. Moreover, as soon as this certainty comes, stabilization will happen quite quickly," Irina Tyurina, press secretary of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, is confident. Nevertheless, the impact of the conflict on the distribution of tourist flows in the 2003 season will be quite noticeable.
We change beaches for... beaches
As is known from physics, if somewhere it decreases, then somewhere it must necessarily increase. According to the Russian Union of Travel Industry, in 2002 the same Turkey was visited by 913 thousand Russian citizens, of which 686 thousand came for recreation (the rest were participants in shopping tours). This year, according to Tatyana Chuvilkina, deputy general director of the Russian company "Natalie Tours", this flow will greatly diminish - about 300-350 thousand people will refuse to visit Turkish resorts. Where will beach lovers head?
One of the alternative destinations is the Balkans, where the flow of our tourists is already actively moving today. Domestic tour operators expect that Croatia, for example, will be able to additionally accept about 20 thousand of our tourists per season. Approximately the same situation is with Bulgaria and Montenegro. For example, for the May holidays, tours to Bulgaria were completely sold out already in mid-April - this has never happened before. The main problem of these countries is the lack of places. So, according to Croatian Minister of Tourism Pave Župan-Rusković, there are 26% fewer hotels in this country than required to meet market needs. This especially applies to the pearl of the Adriatic - Dubrovnik and its surroundings. There is also a shortage of modern hotels in Bulgaria - mostly Soviet-type health resorts are located on the coast. But even they are in unprecedented demand today.
However, the Balkans will be able to attract only 40-50 thousand vacationers. There are still 250-300 thousand left, and, as experts from the Russian Union of Travel Industry say, this is the wealthiest part of the "Turkish" audience, that is, those who took exclusively five-star "all inclusive". For this category of people, safety comes first, especially for those who go on vacation with children. Spain has the best chance of getting wealthy tourists - the resort industry of this country is able to cope with such a flow of "tourist refugees". However, one cannot count on prices remaining at last year's level with such an increase in demand.
Any instability always affects finances to one degree or another. Lack of demand leads to a fall in prices for goods or services, while a shortage, on the contrary, causes an increase in their cost. So far, no shortage is observed at Spanish resorts, but the cost of tours is not standing still either. According to Irina Tyurina, on average, prices at Spanish resorts have already risen by 15-30%. True, some tour operators give more optimistic, from the consumer's point of view, estimates - in their opinion, we can talk about an increase of about 5%. "This year many Germans did not go to Spain - they now have an economic crisis in their country, and people have no extra money for recreation. Therefore, many places in resorts are empty, and this clearly does not contribute to price increases," explained Tatyana Chuvilkina. If we make a certain allowance for advertising, which is always present in the words of tour operators, and derive some average figure for Spain, then the situation in this country can be characterized as follows: stable, with a tendency to some increase in prices.
Against this background, Cyprus stands somewhat apart. Outwardly, the situation there is calm, but according to some domestic tour operators, people are not particularly eager to go there. As is known, part of the island's territory has been occupied by Turkish troops since 1974, and negotiations on the reunification of the country recently failed once again. In addition, Cyprus is located in close proximity to the theater of military operations. However, it should be noted that Cyprus is considered one of the safest tourist regions, despite numerous "desert storms" and the long-standing conflict in neighboring Israel.
On the Black Sea coast of Russia and Ukraine, everything is calm - thank God, we have no war. But there is no civilized tourism industry either; hotels of the level to which our compatriots vacationing abroad have become accustomed are practically absent. Tour operators have no doubt that the price of holidays on the Black Sea will rise. Moreover, market participants predict that by the beginning of summer there will be unbridled increases in the cost of places in hotels in Sochi, Gelendzhik, and Anapa. Prices at Russian Black Sea resorts will soon be like those in Spain, but the level of service is completely different. So far, we have few decent hotels, a low culture of customer service, and a low culture of doing business. Many travel companies complain: as soon as domestic entrepreneurs see an opportunity to profit, for example, as now with the situation with Turkish resorts, they jack up prices sky-high. Contracts concluded in advance are terminated by them, prices are adjusted. In general, sheer lawlessness is going on.
Lake instead of sea
The alarming situation in the Eastern Mediterranean could push some tourists to change their forms of recreation. Beach holidays by the sea have been, are, and will be; there is demand for them, but there is a noticeable increase in interest in European continental tourism. Instead of southern sea beaches, they willingly travel to countries of Central and Northern Europe. Tourist flows to Hungary, Finland, Austria, France, the Czech Republic, and other European countries are expected to grow significantly. There are also very attractive options in terms of price-quality ratio.
For example, Hungary - so far there are no signs that holiday prices there will rise. This is in a way a unique country: its rich historical past is combined with an equally amazing nature. The country abounds in thermal springs (in this sense, Hungary is second in the world after Iceland) - there are now 1,265 of them. The very term "thermal tourism" originated from here. "2003 has been declared the year of health tourism in Hungary. At present, the country can simultaneously receive more than 300,000 balneological tourists. Networks of modern 3-5 star hotels operate, each of them has a large balneological center. There are also opportunities for active recreation: golf, tennis, horseback riding, and much more," says Barnabás Lakatos, advisor to the Hungarian tourism representation.
In neighboring Austria, holiday prices are also quite acceptable, and there are no prerequisites for their growth, but there are more offers. Moreover, in terms of price-quality ratio, this country remains unrivaled in Western Europe. "I cannot say anything bad about Switzerland - the level of recreation there is beyond all praise. But prices are simply crazy! In this regard, Austria can be called the optimal option, especially for family holidays," says Eleonora Kartseva, marketing manager of the Austrian tourism representation.
As for something new and interesting, this year we are invited to the opening of the bathing season on the Carinthian lakes. These are reservoirs with crystal-clear drinking water, and its temperature is always higher than the ambient temperature: for example, if the air has warmed up to 21 degrees, the lake has warmed up to 28 degrees. In mid-May, the bathing season opens there - a boat with the mayor of the city of Velden sails to the center of Lake Wörthersee, he scoops up a glass of water, drinks it, and then fireworks and all the rest are launched. As for the lakes themselves, you can do all kinds of water sports there. And one more additional plus for our compatriots - there is no sharp change in climatic zones. Vacationers remain in the same temperate European climate to which we are accustomed, and there simply cannot be any health problems.
Finland also harbors certain hopes for redistributing demand in its favor. As the head of the Finnish tourism representation, Arto Asikainen, told Itogi, "Finland is far from the theater of military operations and from the hotbeds of infection, so we hope that the tourist flow may also head in our direction. We have quite high hopes for this summer season. I do not want to make forecasts of tourist flow growth, but I can note that prices will definitely not increase compared to last year. In this case, the situation in the global tourism industry will not affect us."