David and Victoria Beckham are among those who prefer large families
In Finland, one in ten newborns has at least three siblings. This is the highest rate among 31 European countries. The growing trend of a fourth child is putting these countries among those with the largest families in the developed world. Nuclear families with two children are becoming a thing of the past.
Moreover, countries with Catholic majorities, where large families have always been the norm, are not at all the leaders in number of children in the modern world. In Italy, only 3.1% of newborns have three siblings; in Spain, just 2.6%; in Poland, 4.6%.
Experts note that one of the main reasons for this trend is migration. In Britain, for example, numbers have increased significantly due to women who moved from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh. On average, their families have more than twice as many children as mothers from European countries.
Furthermore, families of Nigerian, Indian, and Polish migrants also have many children. In 2013, more than a quarter of all children born in Britain were born to foreign-born mothers. This figure has been steadily rising since the 1990s.
The Eurostat study says that this trend is partly explained by cultural and religious factors among migrants. Additionally, some families delay having children until they have settled in the new country.
Moreover, European families have become larger due to changing family patterns. People now enter into later unions, already having children from previous marriages. They also take in the children of their partners from previous relationships.
“The latest data suggest that reports of an imminent demographic catastrophe in the West (Europe and countries with European heritage) have been exaggerated... A slow growth transitioning into a period of fertility has been evident in some countries,” says David Coleman, professor of demography at Oxford University, author of the article “The Death of Europe Postponed.”
Can we say that everyone who was worried about European demographics can now sleep easy? Not quite. Families with four children are still in the minority. Moreover, the average number of children per adult woman in some countries is lower than ever.
On average, a 45-year-old British woman has 1.9 children, although 30 years ago that figure was 2.4. In Finland, the rate is 1.8 and gradually decreasing. Only France and Ireland now show higher birth rates than before.
So the trend of a fourth child in a family rather proves that overall women are having fewer children, but those who already have children are increasingly having more.
Over the past 50 years, a global trend in demography has emerged: the number of children born to women during peak fertility (ages 15 to 44) is declining. Birth rates are falling as residents of developing countries gain access to quality healthcare, education, and the opportunity to improve their financial situation. Statisticians expect the decline to reach a point where fertility rates hit 2.1 – a level that would guarantee maintaining the world's population at a constant level.
Nevertheless, almost half of the world's population lives in countries with a lower rate – where families have two children or even fewer. The decline in birth rates means that India will replace China as the most populous country as early as 2022. However, the demographic paradox is that despite falling birth rates in some parts of the world, the global population continues to grow.