Having expanded eastward in 2004, the European Union shared with the Baltic states not only its advantages but also its problems. For example, as recently as two years ago, Lithuania was one of Europe's leaders in high unemployment rates. Today, however, the Lithuanian government loudly proclaims successes in the sphere of employment.
According to Eurostat data, unemployment in the European Union is decreasing most rapidly this year precisely in Lithuania. For example, in April 2005, compared with the same month in 2004, it fell from 11.2% to 8.1%. Lithuania has significantly outpaced—now in a positive sense—not only new EU members such as Poland (unemployment rate 17.8%) and Slovakia (15.5%), but also EU "old-timers," for example Spain, where unemployment is 9.9%, and France (9.8%).
Even more indicative are unemployment figures for individual Lithuanian cities. Throughout all years of independence, Lithuania's fourth-largest city, Šiauliai, was among the leaders in the number of unemployed people. The unemployment rate there reached 15%. Within a year after the country's entry into the EU, only 2.4% of unemployed remained in Šiauliai! The situation is similar with Panevėžys, where currently only 4.5% are unemployed.
How to explain this "Lithuanian miracle"? Very simply: the unemployed in Lithuania are disappearing thanks to mass migration to wealthy EU countries, primarily to Great Britain and Ireland, which were the first to fully open their labor markets to Lithuanians.
Indeed, according to a survey commissioned by Lithuania's Ministry of Social Security and Labour and conducted by Vilmorus, Great Britain interests the most Lithuanians. Some 48% of all those wishing to emigrate are ready to go there. In second place is Ireland (23%), followed by the USA and Germany (17% each). Another 11% of potential emigrants intend to leave for Norway, 8%+ for Spain, and 6% for Sweden.
But it is not only unemployed Lithuanian citizens who are leaving for the West, but also fully established specialists who are in demand at home. What do the Lithuanian authorities intend to do to replace departing personnel? So far it is unclear. Lithuanian Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas has repeatedly reassured the public that the constant increase in wages in Lithuania will be the factor that will stop mass migration and even bring those who left back. However, it is hard to believe. A person who earns eight times more in Great Britain and has somehow settled there is unlikely to return upon learning that from now on in Lithuania he will be able to earn only seven times less.
In reality, the salaries of, for example, Lithuanian teachers are growing by only 10% per year. Due to the catastrophic staffing situation in medicine, doctors' salaries are being increased at a slightly faster pace—by 20-30% per year. But in the West, medical workers are one of the highest-paid professions. The gap between the pay of a surgeon in Lithuania and in Great Britain or Sweden can be 20-fold. It is obvious that the Lithuanian state does not have the financial capacity to raise the salaries of Lithuanian doctors by hundreds of percent.
An acute shortage of personnel due to emigration is felt not only in medicine. Construction workers, drivers and machine operators, nannies, hotel employees, and representatives of many other occupations that do not require higher education are leaving for the West. The professions of welder and bricklayer have already been proposed for inclusion in Lithuania's list of shortage occupations...
Lithuanian businessmen, not counting on state help, are solving the problem of personnel shortages in the most convenient way for themselves. For example, the construction firm Murena from the city of Alytus was one of the first in Lithuania to decide to invite construction workers from Belarus. There are already 15 workers employed there, and another 50 qualified construction workers are expected to arrive in the near future.
Recently, the Lithuanian press discussed the intentions of the leading supermarket chain in Lithuania, VP Market, to invite Ukrainians and Moldovans to work. According to the company's chairman, Ignas Staškevičius, two reasons force them to seek labor abroad: the mass flight of Lithuanian workers to the West and the rapid growth of the average salary in Lithuania. Apparently, the top manager should be understood as follows: we do not want to pay the average Lithuanian salary, but prefer to find employees in the East who are willing to work for less money.
It should be noted that Lithuanian entrepreneurs have more than once complained about their fellow citizens who, after the opening of Western labor markets, allegedly "do not want to work" and are "picky," beginning to set conditions for employers. And this is true: many prefer to go to the West rather than endure the harsh exploitation that Lithuanian media have repeatedly written about regarding VP Market itself (for example, that people there are forced to work 10 or more hours a day).
So, is Lithuania to expect an influx of migrants, and with them the emergence of acute problems so characteristic of Western Europe?
So far, there are no Arab or even Moldovan quarters in Vilnius. True, there are temporary accommodation centers for refugees in Rukla and Pabradė, where, by the way, incidents have already occurred. The "guests" from Asian and African countries living there at the expense of Lithuanian taxpayers made demands on the "hosts," seeking better living conditions.
The further it goes, the clearer it becomes that vacant jobs will have to be filled by people from poorer countries. And the higher the standard of living in Lithuania, the more reason there will be for not only residents of the former USSR but also Asians and Africans to move here.
It seems, while Lithuanian politicians are busy with intrigues in their own circle, the media and political scientists have realized the problem. As the columnist of the newspaper Lietuvos rytas writes, "For more than a week now, the suburbs of Paris have been burning, and our politicians are only concerned with how to keep Brazauskas and themselves around him. But we have Rukla and Pabrade — small, but quite convenient breeding grounds for possible future unrest in Vilnius and Kaunas. With the growth of Muslim immigrants, we will also have the same problems as in Paris, and along with that, Lithuanian followers of Le Pen will grow and strengthen. This is inevitable."