China's attempts to harmonize its population size are failing
As "Russkaya Germaniya" notes, the previous, stricter birth restriction policy involved a system of hefty fines. For having a third child, a family had to pay $20,440.
The decree emphasizes that "optimizing the birth policy, allowing families to have three children, and corresponding support measures will have a positive effect on improving the demographic structure of the PRC and help address the issue of population aging." According to expert forecasts, thanks to the new demographic policy, the birth rate in the country could increase by 300,000 to 500,000 people per year.
However, experts do not expect a stunning baby boom. Achieving a more significant increase in the birth rate is not easy in practice: according to the head of the China Association for Demography, the number of women of reproductive age in the country is decreasing significantly each year – by 5 million. In addition, Chinese people are deciding to start families later. According to statistics, the age of marriage in China has risen from 23 to 28 years.
Moreover, raising a child in China is quite expensive. Childbirth costs a lot, education in the country is paid, and prices for children's goods, including infant formula, are unusually high. At the same time, state financial assistance to parents is not provided.
Therefore, residents did not react enthusiastically to the liberalization of demographic policy. Moreover, many sharply criticize it and treat the authorities' relaxation with obvious irony, since there is permission from the authorities, but most people still lack financial means.
In the human rights organization Amnesty International, they stated that a more liberal demographic policy still violates reproductive rights. "The government has no right to decide how many children residents can have. Instead of optimizing demographic policy, China should respect people's life choices and stop exercising punitive control over citizens' family planning decisions," said Joshua Rosenzweig, head of Amnesty International's regional office in East Asia.
The PRC officially began implementing the "One Family, One Child" birth restriction policy in 1980. In economic terms, the measures were justified: the country was facing an uncontrolled baby boom, which threatened critical overpopulation. As of 1978, 63% of the PRC's population was under 19 years old, including 28% aged 15 to 19.
However, after more than 40 years of strict birth restriction, the situation has changed dramatically. Now China faces the opposite problem – population aging. The working-age population began to decline in 2012. According to the 2020 national census, there are currently 264 million people over 60 in China (18.7% of the population). Demographers warn that if the current pace of population aging continues, by mid-century every third resident of the PRC will be a pensioner. The total number of retirees will be approximately 480 million.
That is why the authorities decided to change the demographic policy towards liberalization. In 2013, the "one family, one child" policy was first relaxed. From January 1, 2016, all married couples were allowed to have two children. It was expected that this relaxation would lead to a five-year baby boom with an increase in the birth rate of 1.5 million people annually. However, this did not happen.
An increase in the birth rate of 1 million people was noted in 2016, but then birth rates began to fall continuously. In 2017, the birth rate decreased by 880,000 people, in 2018 – by 2 million, in 2019 – by another 580,000, falling below 15 million per year. Last year, the birth rate in China fell by another 2.65 million, dropping to 12 million.
"In the next few years, this figure will drop to 10 million per year. This is due to the ongoing reduction in the main 'pool of women giving birth' – women aged 22 to 35. Their number in China will decrease by 30% in the next 10 years," warns Liang Jian Zhang, professor of economics at Peking University.
Experts admit that allowing a third child is unlikely to be a panacea for solving the PRC's demographic problems. According to a survey, in 2013 only 10% of women were ready to have a second child. In 2020, the results of the same survey showed that the situation had not changed.
To solve the emerging problem, the authorities promise to introduce new measures to support families and encourage motherhood – for example, improving social insurance systems for childbirth and maternity leave, reducing the tax burden on parents, helping with housing issues, and reducing family spending on education. But to maintain the population at a constant level, the birth rate must be at least 2.1 babies per woman. Recently, this number in China has decreased to 1.3, which is one of the lowest birth rates in the world.