From our experience
Those who are currently applying for immigration under the Skilled Worker category have a chance to go through the process very quickly – within 6 to 12 months, and many are exempt from interviews. However, it should be noted that this only works with carefully prepared documents. The slightest inconsistency leads to documents being returned. The selection of applicants has become much stricter, and the attitude less tolerant. Speaking in general terms, those applying under the Skilled Worker category currently face relatively favorable conditions, which, according to our forecasts, will not last long.
For those who submitted their applications before the new law came into effect, the speed of processing has remained virtually unchanged, meaning processing times remain outrageously long. The only positive aspect is that the ministry has abolished the principle of retroactivity. This means that when reviewing an applicant's case, officials are guided by the provisions of the old immigration law, which is considerably softer than the new one. Negative aspects, in addition to processing times, include stricter document checks, especially regarding education and work experience confirmation, as well as a prolonged background check.
The most unpleasant changes have occurred for those applying under the family immigration category. Here, timelines have changed dramatically. In 2001, the entire family sponsorship process took about a year, but now the sponsor approval stage alone takes 20 months, and these timelines are constantly growing. It should be noted that these timelines do not apply to sponsorship of spouses and children, for whom the timelines are significantly shorter.
From statistics
Official data is roughly consistent with our experience – the main problems for Citizenship and Immigration Canada are with those in the family category. Currently, the planned ratio between the Skilled Workers and Family Class categories when admitting immigrants is 60% and 40%, respectively. In fact, only 25% are admitted under the Family Class.
As for the Skilled Worker category, official data suggests that the situation is far from ideal. Currently, an average of 500,000 applicants are on the waiting list under the Skilled Workers category, and only 130,000 of them are actually admitted each year – that is, one in four.
Sentiments and trends
According to polls, Canadians would prefer the country to accept immigrants mainly under the Skilled Worker category. Politicians agree with this. Canada's population is aging rapidly, and there is a need for an influx of young, educated people. Against this backdrop, sponsoring parents, who for the most part no longer have good chances of finding a decent job and are more than likely candidates for social benefits and pensions, looks like an additional burden on the system.
According to unofficial statements by high-ranking officials of Citizenship and Immigration Canada, as cited in the Toronto Star, the following sentiments circulate among them.
Family Class: It is acknowledged that parents and older generations are not of great interest to Canada, but this approach contradicts humanitarian principles. Accordingly, a dilemma arises as to what to do. One path is to open the doors wide for those in the family immigration category, thereby solving the problem of backlogs. The other is to limit admissions to spouses and children, and to honestly tell sponsored parents and older generations that their chances of success are very low (for example, as is currently done in Australia).
Most senior ministry officials lean toward the Australian option, where applications for sponsoring parents would be considered on a second-priority basis. However, no decision has been made, and when one will be made is unknown. The reason is that there is no politician willing to take responsibility.
Our conclusion: under such uncertainty, it can be assumed that officials at Citizenship and Immigration Canada will act according to their sentiments. Apparently, the processing times for sponsored parents and older generations will not decrease and, in all likelihood, will only increase.
Skilled Worker Class: The situation in which, of four applicants whose cases are under review at Citizenship and Immigration Canada and who are eligible to receive an immigration visa, only one receives it, while the cases of the others are deferred to the following year, is dangerous. As a result of this approach, the number of unprocessed applications grows like a snowball. Indeed, the introduction of the new law was an attempt to solve this problem, and the initially declared passing score was supposed to completely stop the flow of new applications for the duration of its effect. However, the ministry's tactics did not work, and it again faced the same problem of backlogs as before.
According to anonymous statements by senior ministry officials published in the Toronto Star, the most popular idea among them is to use a system similar to university admissions. The essence is that from the submitted applications, only those that score the highest number of points are selected. A positive decision is made on such applications within a few months, after which immigration visas are issued. All others who do not pass the competition are refused and given the opportunity to reapply the following year, with no limit on the number of submissions. Upon refusal, their cases are removed from the ministry's file and they no longer stand in any queue.
Our conclusion: apparently, the proposed system will eventually be adopted because it looks logical, and it is unlikely that anyone will strongly object to it.
While everything described in this article is for now only moods and wishes, it does show trends, and it is quite possible that within a year or two they will materialize into real projects and legislative acts. Obviously, Canada will remain open for skilled workers for more than one year; it needs young educated immigrants. However, conditions may change significantly. In particular, if competitive selection is introduced, as in university admission, then only applicants with the highest scores will have a chance to pass.
Moreover, for a period, in order to eliminate the accumulated queue, Canada may altogether place insurmountable obstacles (that is, actually close immigration), as was already the case after the introduction of the new law in June 2002. Let us recall that then the passing score was set so high that almost no one could count on successfully passing immigration to Canada. And only after a year and a half, under very strong pressure, the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration of Canada lowered the passing score. But during that year and a half, immigration to Canada for skilled workers was practically closed.
Keeping in mind this situation, and also the fact that the people who created it continue to work in the ministry and have levers of influence on decision-making, one can predict that the current situation will not last long - possibly no more than a year or a year and a half. And then changes may await us again. Against the background of the accumulating queue, it is not hard to guess which ones. Therefore, if you are planning to immigrate to Canada, hurry up - now there is still a favorable period, which is unlikely to last long.
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