The federal elections in Canada did not turn life upside down
The main result of the elections is that the ruling Conservative government won a sweeping majority of seats in Parliament, giving it the ability to form a majority government and guaranteeing its stay in power for the next four years. At the same time, Canada experienced another political upheaval involving a radical reshuffling of forces in the opposition camp, as a result of which the Conservatives were left without serious opponents.
What does this mean for the coming years? While most analysts hope that the election results will have a beneficial effect on the economy and lead to further prosperity for Canada, in all other areas, including immigration, one can expect tightening and a rejection of social altruism.
One of the main surprises is that the Conservatives confidently won the elections, finally achieving a majority of seats in Parliament and with it the right to form a majority government. Recall that in the two previous election campaigns (2006 and 2008), although the Conservatives came to power, they did not win an absolute majority of seats in Parliament and were forced to settle for a minority government. In practice, this meant that to pass any of their decisions through Parliament, they had to compromise with the opposition, making concessions, or they had to put the question squarely: "You vote for our proposal, or we go to the dissolution of Parliament and new elections."
Usually this tactic worked reliably, and the Conservatives pushed all their initiatives through Parliament without much trouble. This was also facilitated by the Liberal Party, which for the past four years had been the official opposition and held a relatively large number of seats in Parliament, pursuing a policy of acquiescence and trying to avoid sharp upheavals. However, the parliamentary crisis of spring 2011 led to early elections.
And so, on the third attempt, that is, in the third election since the Conservative Party first came to power, they finally achieved a majority. And not just a majority, but a significant lead that no one expected, since pre-election polls showed almost a parity of votes that voters planned to cast for the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party. But in practice, everything turned out quite differently. As a result, the Conservatives gained complete freedom of action and can now pursue their agenda without regard for the opposition.
Speaking of the political style of the Conservatives, it can be characterized as quite tough, aimed at achieving results not so much through negotiation as through pressure. To this should be added the personal characteristics of party leader Stephen Harper, who is accused of an authoritarian leadership style and lack of transparency in decision-making. And if in carrying out economic reforms such a leadership style can be useful, especially during crisis periods, in the social sphere and in political life the effect is usually the opposite.
The second surprise, which can be confidently called the most important milestone in the political history of Canada, is the rout of the Liberal Party, which was left with virtually no seats in Parliament. It is worth recalling that from 1993 until 2006, the Liberal Party ruled the country. Moreover, it is the oldest party in Canada, which throughout the 20th century shaped its political landscape. And now, for the first time in its history, the party has slipped to third place in terms of influence, losing even the status of official opposition. Most importantly, as a result of the elections, the number of seats in Parliament for the Liberals turned out to be several times smaller than that for the New Democratic Party (NDP), which came in second, not to mention the Conservative Party. In other words, it is a complete defeat for the Liberals and their loss of any influence in society.
Against this backdrop, the rise of the New Democratic Party (NDP), which became the second force in Parliament and earned the right to form the official opposition, looks like a stunning success that no one expected. It is worth noting that the NDP is considered a socialist party in Canada, and voting for it has always been the domain of marginal individuals and people with far-left views, a very narrow spectrum of the electorate. Therefore, the resounding success of the New Democrats came as a real shock to many.
Finally, another big surprise was the shift in political preferences in a region such as the province of Quebec. For the past few decades, the Bloc Québécois party, whose main goal is the separation of the province from Canada, had dominated there. In fact, through the efforts of this party, Quebec obtained a special status, becoming the first among other provinces and territories to gain the right to conduct its own immigration policy, etc. And now, as a result of the elections, the Bloc Québécois party suffered a crushing defeat, ceding the vast majority of seats in Parliament to the New Democratic Party (NDP).
Although the results of the elections were unexpected, there are quite rational explanations for them. The main reason for what happened is that Canadian citizens expressed their attitude toward political parties. More precisely, they expressed how much these parties listen to them and how much politicians protect their interests.
If you think about it, what is the reason for the political upheavals that have occurred in the country? It is the rout of the Liberal Party, and partially the departure from the political scene of the Bloc Québécois. The Liberal Party has so discredited itself in recent years that there were few willing to vote for it. Therefore, virtually all those who traditionally voted for the Liberals faced a choice: vote either for the New Democratic Party (NDP), which in Canada is considered almost communist, or for the Conservatives, as the lesser evil. That is, these two parties essentially gained votes at the expense of the Liberals.
The Liberals suffered particularly noticeable losses in the province of Ontario, which gives more seats in Parliament than the four western provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) combined. It should be said that throughout the entire time, the province of Ontario was a stronghold of the Liberal Party, it enjoyed tremendous support here. What happened?
Apparently, the main reason for the rejection of the Liberal Party by Ontarians was the inept economic policy of the provincial branch of this party, which is currently in power. The extremely unpopular McGuinty government, blamed for ill-conceived tax policies, excessive support for trade unions, inept spending of budget funds, and most importantly, the introduction in July 2010 of the hated harmonized sales tax (HST), which had a negative impact on small businesses, became one of the main reasons that in Ontario voters voted for the Conservatives in regions where the Liberals traditionally won.
Finally, the negative attitude towards the leadership of the Liberal Party, and directly towards the personality of party leader Michael Ignatieff, had a great influence on the election results. It is worth recalling that in 2006 the Liberals lost power due to a series of scandals and because they stopped paying close attention to the needs of voters and began to show arrogance. Added to this was the fact that Michael Ignatieff, elected as party leader in 2008, immediately showed himself to be a weak politician who easily compromised with the Conservative Party.
At the very least, the epic story of December 2008, when the Conservative Party was nearly ousted from power by a coalition government initiated by the NDP, came to nothing due to Michael Ignatieff, who refused to join the coalition. Moreover, against the background of the work of MPs from the Conservative Party and especially from the New Democratic Party, who penetrated all segments of the population and actually worked with them, the Liberal Party looks like a cozy clique of politicians out of touch with the people. All this led to what happened.
The victory of the New Democratic Party (NDP), which achieved such impressive results in the recent elections, is also quite understandable. First of all, the party owes its success to its leader Jack Layton, a smart and charismatic politician who over several years brought the NDP to a new level. At least in Parliament, Jack Layton and his wife and party colleague Olivia Chow were the most harsh critics of the Conservative government, and it was Layton who conceived and practically prepared the formation of a coalition government in 2008, which nearly led to the ousting of the Conservative Party from power. All this became part of the NDP's baggage, which transformed into a convincing election victory.
Speaking about changes in the province of Quebec, it is worth a brief historical digression. For a long time, the province was a fief of the Liberal Party, but with the rise of the separatist movement in Quebec in the 1960s-1970s, the Liberals lost their influence there, and were replaced by the nationalist Bloc Québécois, whose goal is to remove the province from Canada and create an independent state. For decades, the Bloc Québécois dominated the province, playing an important role in Canadian politics. But since everything has its price, Quebec had to pay for its separatism with its economic prosperity.
Historically, since the founding of Canada, Quebec was the most developed province in the country, and Montreal was de facto the financial, cultural and business capital of Canada. When the rise of separatist sentiments began, this situation came to an end, as business people and companies started to leave the province, moving their businesses to the stable province of Ontario. As a result, in the mid-1980s Montreal surrendered its position, giving way to Toronto, whose flourishing continues to this day, while Montreal is deteriorating and losing its former charm.
Thus, after half a century since the rise of separatist sentiments, the province of Quebec found itself far from its best condition, and the inhabitants of the province came to realize that changes are needed and that separatism leads to nothing good. That is, the election results allow us to say that the saga of Quebec separatism is coming to an end and we should expect serious changes in this province.
Read the continuation of the topic: «PROSPECTS AFTER THE ELECTIONS»
Elena RYABININA.
«Russian Toronto»