According to preliminary data published last Friday by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden, at the end of 2011 Germany had 81,800,000 residents – just 50,000 more than in the previous December. Statistically, this is of course an increase, but it can only be characterized as a temporary victory at this stage, since in the long term the depressing demographic situation in the country, unfortunately, is unlikely to change. It still entirely depends on the migration factor, which is unable to ensure a permanent population increase.
Over the past year, due to immigration, the country gained a decent increase of 240,000 people – this is the difference between the number of people who arrived in Germany and those who left it. However, the natural population increase, i.e., the difference between the number of births and deaths, was so negative that the significant positive migration balance, although it remained, decreased almost fivefold.
The influx of immigrants in 2011 was provided mainly by countries that became EU members in 2004 and 2007 – primarily Poland, as well as Hungary and Romania. Since May of last year, citizens of nine 'new' EU countries received full work rights in Germany, and since then, 28,000 people have been entering our country monthly, which is about 13,000 more than in each of the first four months of the year.
However, representatives of diaspora communities see in this a consequence not only of labor migration: many of their compatriots intend to study here in the future and stay to live for many years. If potential workers arriving from eastern or southern Europe manage to settle well in Germany, they will let their compatriots know, which could trigger a new flow of labor migrants.
And yet, even the relatively high positive balance of last year of 240,000 people will not ensure a permanent and long-term population increase. According to Johann Fuchs, a representative of the Nuremberg Institute for Labor Market Research, an increase of 300 to 400 thousand per year is needed for this. Moreover, arrivals generally end up in those regions of Germany that are already demographically prosperous.
According to Rembrandt Scholz, a representative of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, the winners are primarily Berlin, Hamburg, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Hesse, and Schleswig-Holstein. In other regions, especially in the territory of the new German states, the situation is only worsening.