It is the socio-economic component of the demographic problem (and least of all the needs of defense or ethno-cultural identity) that determines the anxiety of European public opinion and governments. Experts are confident that even the influx of migrants from developing countries, which accounts for 70% of the EU's population growth, will not save the situation.
The population of the 25 countries now in the European Union was 1/8 of the world's population in 1960, but in 2025, according to the European Commission's forecast, it will be only 1/20. With a birth rate of 1.4 children per woman (with the level of 2.1 needed for generation replacement), the European Union is among the last in the world. The demographic situation varies across the EU. Birth rates have been systematically falling for several years in Finland (–3.1% per year), the United Kingdom (–2.9%), Germany (–0.9%), and Belgium (–0.1%). Irish women have the most children (14.6 newborns per thousand population), followed by French women (13.1). German women are the least inclined to give birth (9.2).
In the next 20 years, if the forecast is to be believed, the population of the 25 union members will continue to grow and increase by about 13 million people: from 456.8 million now to 470.1 million by January 1, 2025. But even this growth can only be achieved through immigration, because from 2010 the number of deaths will exceed the number of births. And from 2025, even immigration will not be able to compensate for the natural population decline, and it will begin to shrink. Over a quarter of a century, by 2050, Europe within the current EU borders will lose more than 20 million inhabitants.
The demographic policy of the European Union countries is complex and multifaceted. It is not only or even so much the encouragement of childbearing, although nationalist parties and movements mainly rely on this. This policy includes child-raising benefits, immigration, provision for old age, and improvement of the healthcare system (for everyone, not just young mothers). Europeans, despite all the nationalism fostered by the era of the nation-state, view their demographic problem in a global context. European civilization did not die as a result of the mass mixing of ethnic groups—the melting pot of the Roman Empire, barbarian invasions, Normans... It will not die, scientists believe and liberal politicians are confident, under the current waves of immigration either.
The population of the European Union is still growing, albeit slowly—by fractions of a percent per year. However, the EU owes the increase in its population to immigration, which accounts for 70% of population growth. In other words, less than a third of the EU's new residents are children born on its soil. Every year, between 700,000 and 900,000 people arrive in the EU for permanent residence. In the record year of 1992, Western Europe accepted 1 million 350 thousand immigrants.
According to Eurostat experts, with zero or insufficient immigration, certain parts of the European Union, especially Germany, Greece, Italy, and Sweden, would have faced an absolute population decline in the past year. But immigration by itself is only part of the solution. In a recently published book, former European Commissioner for External Policy Christopher Patten noted: "We must encourage immigration to meet the targeted needs of our labor market, but we should not tell fairy tales that immigration alone will help us solve the demographic problem." Immigrants also age, and their daughters in new living conditions give birth to fewer children. The burden on the social budget will still grow, unless we assume the fantastic hypothesis of a mass import of orphaned infants.
In developed European countries, the system of family benefits was formed back in the 30s of the last century. But the baby boom occurred in the 60s. That is, there is no direct dependence of one on the other. Statistics show that the birth rate rises and falls from year to year, and significantly so, while benefits do not change. They are rather not a stimulus for procreation, but one of the means of ensuring a decent life for certain categories of citizens.
The system of benefits differs across EU countries depending on national traditions and national income, but the general principles are similar. Today, a French woman in her seventh month of pregnancy receives a basic benefit of €841 plus €168 per month until the child reaches the age of three. If she is forced to stop working from one month before giving birth to one month after, she is entitled to compensation of €1,294. Mandatory medical care for a pregnant woman is completely free, including ultrasound and the detection of severe genetic anomalies of the fetus. Until the child reaches the age of six, she is entitled to assistance that provides a choice between paying for a nursery, a nanny, or devoting herself entirely to raising children at home. In the latter case, it is €541, and if she works part-time, there is an additional payment of €345. But still, despite all the benefits and allowances, European women are in no hurry to give birth.
At demographic conferences held in Brussels, the emphasis is not on stimulating childbearing, although attention is paid to this as well. The main thing is how to minimize the social consequences of aging. Perhaps the authors of apocalyptic forecasts are over-dramatizing? Economist Micheline Lambrecht of the Belgian government's Planning Bureau believes that UN demographers did not take into account the real trends in the social development of modern Europe. For example, she notes, UN experts take the current level of activity as a constant. Meanwhile, Belgium has seen a trend of increasing employment among women and predicts an increase in the activity of older age groups. The retirement threshold of 75 years is already quite realistic. In other words, people who in the UN report are deliberately called a burden on society will in the future become its active part. This is also facilitated by technical progress. Even a healthy person at age 60 will not go into a mine. But that is not necessary: all mines in Belgium have long been closed. But he can work productively at a computer.