The shortage of truck drivers for freight transport has become an urgent political problem
Germany has over half a million truck drivers
As reported by Deutsche Welle, the acute shortage of long-haul drivers is warned about by the German Economic Institute in Cologne (IW). Its labor market expert Alexander Burstedde, impressed by the events in Britain, analyzed the dynamics of demand for drivers in Germany, as this is one of the largest professional groups in the country: over 560,000 people sit behind the wheel of trucks in Germany.
At the beginning of 2010, at the end of the global financial and economic crisis, there were 10,000 vacancies and 50,000 unemployed long-haul drivers in Germany. "Employers could then choose their drivers," the scientist states. However, just a few years later, the drivers themselves could choose their employer to their liking: amid sustained economic growth, the demand for their services increased sharply.
In August 2018, the difference between the number of vacancies and registered unemployed long-haul drivers in the country exceeded 21,000 and reached a historical maximum. Alexander Burstedde in his study cites the scientific advisory board at the German Federal Ministry of Transport (BMVI), which concluded that "the shortage of truck drivers for freight transport has become an urgent political problem."
This problem, however, temporarily resolved itself during last year's crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns. But now, along with the recovery of the German economy, it is again becoming acute. As of September 2021, there were 6,600 more vacancies for long-haul drivers than registered unemployed truck drivers, although Germany's GDP has not yet returned to its pre-crisis level, the expert points out.
Demographic factor in the labor market
Alexander Burstedde sees the main reason for the growing shortage of long-haul drivers in the demographic factor – the aging of Germany's population. However, this process is also observed in other European countries, including Ukraine and Russia. Because of this, the shortage of truck drivers can be considered a pan-European problem.
"In the demographic situation surrounding truck drivers, the general trend in the labor market in Germany is clearly visible," the scientist emphasizes and points to the forecast of the EU statistical office Eurostat, according to which Germany's working-age population will decrease by 6.8 percent by 2030, and without attracting labor migrants – even by 11.2 percent.
However, in the professional group of drivers, this process may occur even faster, since the average age here is particularly high, the study emphasizes. Thus, among those currently working behind the wheel of a truck in Germany, 14.5 percent are people over 60 years old, while among all employees, the share of people in this age category averages only 9.3 percent. At the same time, it is increasingly difficult for employers to interest young people in this profession. Moreover, in Germany, women have increasingly been recruited to drive trucks.
Long-haul drivers from Eastern Europe
Until now, the problem of driver shortages has often been solved thanks to an influx of foreign personnel, mainly from Eastern European EU member states. Thus, the share of foreigners among German long-haul drivers more than doubled in just five years – from 2014 to 2019 – from 10.9 to 22.8 percent. However, "the potential for labor migration from Eastern Europe is shrinking," notes Alexander Burstedde. But Germany is in any case in a much more advantageous situation than Great Britain: Brexit effectively closed the British labor market to skilled workers from the EU, including drivers of trucks or tankers.
So how to solve the problem? The railway will not be able to take over significant volumes of current road freight transport in the near future, Alexander Burstedde cites the conclusion of the scientific advisory board at the BMVI, and autonomous driving is not yet ready for widespread use. The scientist's conclusion: "The only thing left is to increase the attractiveness of the truck driver profession for young and old people."
Proposing specific steps was not the task of the German Economic Institute's study. However, it is not difficult to assume that this primarily means raising salaries and improving working conditions. However, the author points out that "unreliable employment prospects do not contribute much to the attractiveness of this profession." This refers to the ease and speed with which employers fire long-haul drivers during crises. In the future, companies will probably have to make jobs for representatives of this profession more reliable. After all, skilled truck drivers will be in short supply.