The crisis does not spare Eastern Europe either, so most migrants have decided to wait out the hard times in the West
The majority of migrants are citizens of Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. After these countries joined the EU in 2004, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Sweden opened their labor markets to them. As noted by IA Rosbalt, today supply on these markets significantly exceeds demand.
The United Kingdom has registered the highest number of unemployed since January 2001 – 2 million people. For the first time in 17 years, the number of people applying for state benefits has exceeded one million. It is expected that by the end of 2010 there will be 3 million unemployed. Layoffs are occurring mainly in the real estate, finance, and construction sectors. The Confederation of British Industry forecasts that the economic crisis in the British Isles will peak by the end of 2009.
According to the British government, about a million people will leave the country. Trevor Phillips, head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission, said that since foreigners are massively losing their jobs in the UK and returning home, it means the country is already 'exporting unemployment'.
According to The Telegraph, the exodus of labor migrants will be comparable only to the emigration after the First World War. At that time, 300 thousand people left the British Isles annually. But in London, the possible exodus of migrants is viewed calmly. They are a safety cushion. If they were not there, the percentage of unemployed among the kingdom's subjects would be high.
According to official data, since 2004, 800 thousand Eastern Europeans have arrived in the UK for work. Unofficially, about a million people came to the UK from Poland alone. There is no exact information on how many have already returned home and how many plan to do so in the near future. According to unofficial data, half a million Poles have already left the country. And according to estimates by the British Home Office, only about 100 thousand have returned to Poland. It is forecast that about a third of the Poles currently in the UK could lose their jobs. Some of them plan to wait out the hard times abroad, and only some plan to return home.
A difficult situation is also developing in Ireland. Immigrants make up about 15% of the population of the 'Celtic Tiger'. As The Economist writes, Eastern Europeans, mainly Poles, have settled evenly throughout the country, so 'almost every Irish person knows a Pole'. Recently, the unemployment rate in the country has almost doubled, reaching 7%, and it seems set to continue to rise. An economic recession like the current one last occurred in Ireland 20 years ago. It is believed that by April of this year, about 30 thousand people from Eastern Europe will leave the country. A recent poll showed that a third of the Poles in Ireland (200 thousand in total) plan to leave Ireland within a year.
Eastern European countries can profitably use the returning labor force. The Lithuanian government does not hide its desire to bring back qualified personnel from abroad. Poland needs builders for the construction of the 2012 European Football Championship facilities.
The government of Donald Tusk launched a special information program 'Do you have plans to return?' and a corresponding internet portal. According to one of the prime minister's advisers, the goal of the program is to create conditions for those returning to their homeland. He specifically noted that the government does not set itself the task of persuading Poles working abroad to return to Poland.
The program evokes mixed feelings. It is not noticeable that the Polish government is strongly interested in the return of compatriots. Ministers do not yet expect a mass return. The Minister of Labor and Social Policy, Jolanta Fedak, even stated that despite the economic crisis, the difference in wages between new and old EU countries remains significant. Not surprisingly, as of mid-December, only 12 thousand people who returned from abroad had registered with Polish employment offices.
Indeed, where should they return? The crisis does not spare Eastern Europe either. To put it mildly, the unfavorable economic situation in the Baltic states is well known to everyone. Poland is in a somewhat more favorable position, but the crisis has not bypassed the Polish economy either: unemployment is rising and industrial production is falling. The situation is no better in the other new EU countries. People are forced to choose the lesser of two evils. For most migrants, it is better to wait out the hard times in the West.