“For all their necessity, international money transfer systems (not to mention the informal segment), like other financial intermediary structures, can be used for money laundering, terrorism financing, and other criminal purposes,” the Central Bank's report says. “Therefore, these systems, like credit organizations, should be subject not only to statistical monitoring but also to appropriate prudential supervision.”
At the same time, the stated $1.2 billion includes only unofficial transfers — the import or export of cash by migrants or trusted individuals, or through train conductors, bus drivers, etc. Such money transfers are the most difficult to track.
“There are several methods for assessing such capital outflow. I believe that the Central Bank could have calculated the money of unofficial workers based on average wages and the average number of migrants in industries. The number of migrants can be roughly estimated by tracking transport flows,” explained Alexei Demkin, an analyst at Trust Bank. The expert believes that with such data, the Central Bank estimates that approximately 200,000 migrants unofficially take money out of Russia. “Without taking into account the seasonal factor, migrants took out $100 million per month. Assuming that the average salary of a temporary worker is about $500 a month, we get that 200,000 migrants in Russia take money out through unofficial channels. This figure is very underestimated; the number runs into millions,” the expert believes.
Natalia Odintsova, director of financial consulting at BDO Unicon, adds that such huge amounts mean that the migration service and fiscal legislation are not working well enough.
As noted by the Central Bank, unofficial money transfers are most often used by groups united by nationality — from the countries of the Transcaucasus, Central Asia, and Ukraine. The reason for unofficial transfers is simple: guest workers do not have the necessary documents to send money through a bank. The second reason is distrust of banking services due to poor knowledge of procedures and the Russian language. And, of course, high bank commissions. “The distrust factor plays a role,” says Alexei Demkin. “For people to trust banks, the latter must earn their favor. But even now, transferring funds to economically disadvantaged states can create problems for the sender. In many CIS countries, excluding Kazakhstan, the banking system is less reliable than in Russia. Moreover, money to CIS countries is mainly transferred by manual workers. They prefer to do it the old-fashioned way and not pay bank commissions.”
At the same time, the Central Bank is confident that a developed money transfer market is forming in Russia. This is evidenced by the fact that the market volume is increasing year after year. “There is reason to assert that this trend will continue, as the share of “unofficial” channels for transferring money is shrinking and clients are flowing into the official sphere of transfers,” the Central Bank's report says.
Money transfers from Russia significantly exceed inflows into the country, and the trend of an increasing gap has been observed for the fourth consecutive year. The total amount of transfers from and to Russia in 2004 was $8.2 billion, compared to $4.7 billion in 2003. Inflows amounted to $2.7 billion, payments — $5.5 billion. The most money “went” to CIS countries — the negative balance with them is $2.9 billion.
“If we attract labor from abroad, it is not surprising that they send money to their home countries. This is a natural capital flow. But migrants live and work here and spend a significant part of their salaries in Russia, also contributing to the doubling of GDP. Some funds, of course, go abroad, but there is nothing catastrophic about it,” said Natalia Odintsova.
Pyotr KANAEV, Alexander POLIVANOV.
Gazeta.Ru