In all EU countries, too few children are being born
As noted by IA "Rosbalt", this conclusion, made by a group of scientists from the German Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Rostock), should horrify Europeans. Behind long columns of figures and graphs stands a phrase as cutting as a whip, picked up by dozens of newspapers and magazines: Europe is dying out. All of it – from sea to sea.
If earlier Germany, the United Kingdom, and France were traditionally considered "aging" countries, and southern European states (Spain, Italy, and Greece) were held up as examples, now German demographers have proven the opposite with figures in hand. In none of the 27 EU countries has population growth in recent years been able to sustain the current population size in the future. All fertility rate graphs are firmly and unequivocally trending downward.
The Rostock demographers start from the premise that to maintain the population at its current level (just to maintain it!), every woman capable of childbearing must give birth to an average of 2.1 children (10 women must give birth to 21 children). Currently, the closest to this indicator are France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the Scandinavian countries: the average here is between 1.8 and 2 children. This is not enough to sustain the current population level in the future, but there is hope for a quick increase in the fertility rate.
In the countries of the so-called "German-speaking area" (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, part of Belgium), the situation is much worse: here, on average, there are one and a half children per woman. Things are really bad in the states of Central and Eastern Europe: for every woman capable of giving birth, there are 1.3 children. At the same time, in the east and south of the European continent, the average life expectancy has decreased somewhat in the past couple of years, so in these countries the process of population decline is especially noticeable. The European leader in fertility rate at the moment is Iceland, followed by Ireland and France. The worst situation is in Germany, Austria, and Slovenia.
This time, the researchers found a very original explanation for the process of the European continent's extinction. In their opinion, the main reason for the negative trend is the increase in the duration of active work and social life of young Europeans. The time spent on education is increasing every decade: for example, in the post-war period, schools in Germany transformed from ten-year to thirteen-year programs, and the average duration of obtaining a university degree in European countries increased from 8 semesters to 12.
Moreover, in many European states after World War II, a tradition that came from the British Isles spread, according to which a young man or woman who has received an education spends at least another year traveling the world: as they say, to see people and show oneself. All this leads to the fact that young people enter the "working" period of life and start families much later than before, claim scientists from Rostock in the specialized journal Demografische Forschung aus Erster Hand ("Demographic Research from First Hand"). Late marriages, as a rule, give the world fewer children – this has been known for a long time.
Scientists claim that a growing trend of acceptance of out-of-wedlock children in society has benefited the population reproduction process in Europe. If earlier in Catholic-Protestant Europe, children born out of wedlock were met with a certain degree of rejection or pity, today this is not the case. Children born in "family-like" conditions or children born out of wedlock are completely accepted by society. The change in public consciousness in this direction occurred in the countries of Northern and Western Europe around the 1960s and 1970s. It was then that a significant decrease in the number of officially concluded marriages was noted in these states, which in the early decades led to a decrease in the fertility rate. Now the situation has changed, and official marriage as such is no longer a factor affecting fertility.
In addition, German researchers cite immigration as a factor positively influencing fertility. They processed data from eight Western European countries (Netherlands, United Kingdom, Portugal, Austria, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany) and found that between 1997 and 2006, the share of fertility growth in immigrant families in the total number of children born there increased from three to eight percent. Nevertheless, these figures are still too insignificant to seriously affect the overall population growth rate in these countries. Much more important, demographers believe, is the concern of national governments for proper family policy.
An important role is played by material incentives that these countries create for their female residents to be more willing to have children, as well as ensuring "interaction" between family and work. Experience shows that the availability of kindergartens and flexibility of working hours for families with children best "spurs" the desire to have offspring. Moreover, equality between men and women becomes a central issue. In the northern countries, where infrastructure is the most developed in Europe, and where men are much more involved in raising children and household chores than in other European states, many more couples decide to have children, and they make this decision much more easily.
So, despite the truly frightening figures cited in the study, the Rostock demographers still believe that Europeans have hope of not dying out over time, like the Neanderthals who once lived in the thickets along the Rhine. Simply put, as statisticians say, potential children should be turned into real ones. That is - simply give birth more.