Undoubtedly, the greatest contribution to the development of labor migration in the EU in recent times has been made by the new member states. According to unofficial data, over the past two years, more than two million people have left Poland. From Lithuania – about 400 thousand. Hundreds of thousands of people have left Slovakia, Latvia, and Estonia in search of work in Western Europe.
Last year, the European Commission prepared a special report in which it attempted to assess the effect of the EU-10 countries (those that joined the European Union on May 1, 2004) on the EU-15 countries (the "old" EU member states) in terms of labor migration. It turned out that even in those countries that did not legally restrict labor migration from the new member states during the EU enlargement (the UK, Ireland, and Sweden did not do this), the share of arrivals was a negligible percentage. According to statistics, the highest percentage of arrivals from the EU-10 was recorded in 2005 in Ireland – 3.8% of the total working-age population (second place – Austria with 1.2%).
However, the data may be overestimated, since in the case of Ireland, for example, 3.8% are those who applied for the so-called Personal Public Service Number, which is necessary not only for employment. Moreover, most work permits are issued for a short period: up to 90% for less than 6 months. And most importantly, the European Commission uses official statistics figures, which cannot provide an idea of illegally working migrants from the EU-10.
The European Commission document states that labor migration from the EU-10 countries contributed to a reduction in unemployment, positive economic development, and had a beneficial effect on public finances in the EU-15 countries. The authors of the report also concluded that migrants from the EU-10 do not compete with the local population but, on the contrary, fill existing gaps in the labor market. This is confirmed by the fact that the number of low-skilled workers from the EU-10 is much lower than that of local workers of the same qualification (21% vs. 31%).
The report's authors note that the predominance of Eastern Europeans is observed only in the category of medium-skilled workers with secondary education and vocational training (57% and 46% respectively), with roughly equal proportions of highly skilled specialists. Regarding medium-skilled specialists, the report's authors emphasize the favorable nature of the existing imbalance in favor of immigrants from the EU-10, since it is precisely workers of this level that are lacking in the countries of old Europe.
The governments of those countries that did not restrict access to their labor markets in 2004 also view labor migration from the EU-10 positively. However, when it comes to public sentiment, the situation is more complicated. A typical example is the United Kingdom.
In a Home Office report analyzing migration from new EU member states from May 2004 to June 2006, it is assessed positively. The total number of those who applied for work is 447 thousand people, of which more than 250 thousand (62%) are Poles, 50 thousand (12%) are Lithuanians, 44 thousand (10%) are Slovaks. 82% of labor migrants are young people aged 18 to 34. Immigrants mainly work in industrial enterprises (more than a third), in warehouses, as packers, kitchen assistants, cleaners, farm workers.
British officials note that as a result, it was possible to fill gaps in the labor market, and this contributed to economic growth. At the same time, there was no additional burden on the budget – virtually none of the Eastern Europeans received payments from the British government based on low incomes or unemployment. The percentage of people whom migrants brought with them to the islands also turned out to be low: only 8% of arrivals declared that they had brought some relatives with them.
However, the UK public does not always agree with officials. Recently, the non-governmental organization Migrationwatch UK published a report stating that the economic benefit from migrants is minimal. If we divide the amount of profit for the UK economy that immigrants bring annually by their number, it comes to about 0.01% of GDP or 4 pence per person per week. Moreover, according to Migrationwatch UK, immigrants send about €10 million daily to their home countries. It turns out that the vast majority of them work illegally and do not pay taxes, with which government representatives categorically disagree.
The media often report on the burden on social services. Schools do not have enough teachers for those studying English as a second language. The government is criticized for incorrect immigration estimates. The media write that together with illegal workers, the total number of immigrants from Eastern Europe reaches 600 thousand, whereas on the eve of the EU enlargement, the government spoke of labor immigration at the level of 13 thousand people per year. In reality, tens of times more people arrived in the country.
An indirect sign that the British government acknowledged the underestimation of the scale of immigration was the cautious approach to the issue of labor migration from Bulgaria and Romania – countries that joined the EU on January 1 of this year. The UK tightened immigration legislation regarding potential migrants from these countries. The British government even spent several hundred thousand pounds on advertising in Bulgaria and Romania, urging people to go to work in the UK only if they have a contract with an employer. Similar restrictions towards these countries are being introduced by Ireland – another country that opened its labor market to Eastern Europe and experienced a shock of mass immigration.
It should be noted that in the new EU member states, the situation on the labor market is becoming more serious. In Poland, there is already a real shortage of construction workers, welders, doctors, nurses, and IT industry workers. In the country, there is increasing talk of attracting labor from Ukraine. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia are facing similar problems.
If we look at public opinion polls, citizens of the EU-10 countries have a negative attitude towards looking for work far from home. However, the majority is ready to leave the country in the event of a threat of unemployment. In the EU-15 countries, on the contrary, working abroad is viewed positively, but they are in no hurry to leave their homeland. Labor migration for Eastern Europe, therefore, is an extremely undesirable but unavoidable measure, the consequences of which could be very serious for both old and new EU countries.
Alexei TIMOFEEV.
IA Rosbalt