Housing prices rose in 24 of the 41 countries studied by Global Property Guide. The largest increase was recorded in Hong Kong – 20.37% (in 2011 the price increase was 5.08%). In Dubai (UAE) prices rose by 19.91% (in 2011 – minus 0.93%), in Turkey – by 10.55% (in 2011 – plus 2.39%).
Such rapid price growth (in Hong Kong and Dubai) may be a sign of an incipient market 'overheating'. 'In Dubai, there are certainly objective factors for such price growth: continued capital inflows from abroad, low mortgage rates, the region's attractiveness for tourists, a strong economy. However, the danger of market 'overheating' is already high: no one can predict how long the growth will last,' believes Anna Batizi, head of the overseas real estate department at Moscow Sotheby's International Realty.
According to Tranio.Ru, prices in Hong Kong are rising due to limited housing supply: the government has a monopoly on land and puts plots up for auction only as needed.
The outsiders in the ranking were Spain and Greece: in 2012 compared to 2011, the decline in real estate prices only accelerated. Thus, in Spain in 2012 prices fell by 10.04% (in 2011 – by 6.78%), in Greece – by 13.25% in 2012 and by 6.67% in 2011. In Poland in 2012 prices fell by 5.2% (in 2011 – by 10.55%), in Ireland – by 5.65% (in 2011 – by 18.68%), in Portugal – by 6.85% (in 2011 – by 8.45%), in the Netherlands – by 9.52% (in 2011 – by 5.76%).
Prices also fell in France in 2012 – by 1.63%, although in 2011 prices in that country rose by 3.66%. At the same time, for example, real estate prices in Denmark rose by 7.89% (in 2011 – minus 6.97%), in Norway – by 6.59% (in 2011 – plus 7.97%), Estonia, Tallinn – by 5.93% (in 2011 – plus 15.8%), in Finland – by 4.55% (in 2011 – plus 1.4%), in Germany – by 2.19% (in 2011 plus 5.44%).
'The real estate market is a derivative of the aggregate demand of EU countries. At the moment, problems exist not only in the PIIGS countries. At the end of 2012, pressure was noticeable on the main macroeconomic indicators of other bloc countries that seemed not subject to serious problems. One such country was France. Against the backdrop of declining consumer confidence, the difficult situation in the real estate market seems normal. So far, only Germany has not seen serious problems,' says Anton Soroko, analyst at the investment holding Finam.
The situation in Greece looks the least optimistic, believes Anna Batizi. 'It is no coincidence that the authorities of this country, following some of its EU neighbors, introduced and approved a draft law on residency permits for foreign real estate buyers, with a threshold of 300 thousand euros.
In Spain, trends towards leveling have emerged. Most likely, in 2013 we will see a revival in the real estate market of this country,' says Batizi.
Anton Soroko is less optimistic. According to the analyst, the market bottom has not yet been reached not only in Greece but also in Spain. 'In Greece and Spain, unemployment continues to rise, reaching very high levels. In both countries, this figure rose to 26% in the fourth quarter. This is happening amid austerity in almost all budget items. In such a situation, the collapse of aggregate real income of citizens leads primarily to a drop in demand for investment products, which include real estate. It seems to me that it is too early to talk about reaching the 'bottom'. We need to wait until the main benchmarks (GDP growth, unemployment rate) change their dynamics. After some time, this should lead to a revival in the real estate market,' believes Anton Soroko.
GlobalPropertyGuide Index (price change in % in 2012)
Hong Kong – plus 20.37
UAE (Dubai) – plus 19.91
Turkey – plus 10.55
Brazil (São Paulo) – plus 9.4
New Zealand – plus 8.55
India (Delhi) – plus 6.05
Denmark – plus 5.8
Norway – plus 5.3 Philippines – plus 4.9
Romania – plus 3.58m South Africa – plus 3.57
Israel – plus 2.79
Switzerland – plus 2.41
Estonia (Tallinn) – plus 2.4
Canada – plus 2.22
Finland – plus 2.12
Sweden – plus 2.02
Taiwan (Taipei) – plus 0.88
Latvia (Riga) – plus 0.48
Iceland – plus 0.37
Germany – plus 0.13
Australia – minus 0.04
Japan (Tokyo) – minus 1.09
Singapore – minus 1.11
Thailand – minus 1.48
China (Shanghai) – minus 1.83
Slovakia – minus 2.49
France – minus 3.12
United Kingdom – minus 3.67
Lithuania (Vilnius) – minus 4.13
Poland (Warsaw) – minus 5.2
Bulgaria – minus 5.42
Ireland – minus 5.65
Portugal – minus 6.85
Slovenia (Ljubljana) – minus 8.7
Croatia (Zagreb) – minus 8.8
Netherlands – minus 9.52
Spain – minus 12.73
Greece – minus 14.22
Yulia POGORELOVA,
'Gazeta.Ru'.