Photo: Ukrinform
Let's start with the facts. Until May 1, Ecoline sent one bus a day from Vilnius to London, and that bus was often half-empty. Today, however, three double-decker buses, packed to capacity, depart daily to "conquer" Britain. Moreover, various agencies that make a living selling Lithuanian labor to the West are forced to do something previously unheard of: to hire buses specifically for their clients. As local media report, a bus packed with Lithuanian "blacks" often takes them all to the same enterprise, where concrete mixers and shovels (and, of course, overseers) are already waiting for them.
It is, frankly, a sight that seriously tests national pride: the east of Europe (as Africa once did for America) supplies cheap labor to the western part of the common European "home." They say that today people, unlike black slaves, go West voluntarily. But no one would voluntarily abandon their land, family, and surroundings if they had a chance not to live in poverty in their own country. People are fleeing poverty.
However, there is another view of the problem, held by the political elite — both in the EU and in the countries that have just joined the EU. Like, this is all perfectly normal, it should be so, everyone is fine. Intermediary firms and transport companies are reaping excess profits; British employers are rubbing their hands at getting cheap labor. And what about the workers from the East themselves, whose eyes burn with excitement all the way to London at the happiness that has fallen upon them? So who suffers? Who feels bad?
A similar situation is observed in Poland, from where about forty buses packed with people seeking work depart for Britain every day. Before May, that many buses left for the island of dreams in a week, not in a day!
Airlines are also not sleeping. Lithuanian Lietuvos avialinijos has introduced a previously unthinkable fare for tickets in the western direction: from 150 litas (almost $50) one way, whereas back in winter prices were exorbitant, five to six times higher. The sharply increased flow of passengers and the resulting competition have done their job. Today, tickets at this price are sold out for the entire summer and early autumn, and tickets of the next class, twice as expensive, are also running out. The Latvian airline Air Baltic has just begun to compete fiercely with Lithuanian carriers for the money of Lithuanian unemployed.
According to the latest data, Lithuania ranks third among the new EU members in the number of unemployed per 100,000 population. Higher unemployment is only in Poland and Slovakia. However, even with a large number of unemployed, such a sharp exodus from these countries was not expected. The hype provoked by the desire of workers from the East to get to the table as quickly as possible played its role. While there are still vacancies!
The fact is that most of the old EU member states have provided for a transition period during which the entry of labor from the new EU members is restricted. Only two countries have actually become sufficiently open so far — Ireland and the United Kingdom. They took a certain risk because they feel an acute shortage of labor. Britain needs to fill 350,000 job vacancies, and there is every reason to believe that with such an influx of applicants, these jobs will be filled in the near future. Whoever arrives first has a greater choice, and whoever comes later will get what is left! It is the understanding of this reality that provoked such an unexpectedly massive outflow of labor from the new EU members.
Another factor is the hope of quickly settling legally in a rich EU country. According to experts' calculations, even with the GDP growth Lithuania has today (7-9% per year), it will reach the EU average level in about 20-30 years. In fact, this is about a lost generation. And this is provided that the EU economy will grow at the same snail's pace as today (1-3% per year).
Meanwhile, a person who has received permission to work legally in the UK has the right to stay in the country for 12 months. During this time, he must find an employer or start his own business. If he succeeds, he receives permission for another three years of stay. And then the emigrant without problems becomes a permanent resident of one of the richest EU countries. Thus, a person who leaves today in a crowded bus from Vilnius to London hopes to beat time itself and find himself immediately in that secure future that, if all goes well, those remaining in Lithuania will reach in decades. On his salary, he can rent housing, buy necessary appliances for the home, and also, again, he needs children's clothing, food, and at least some rest.
Meanwhile, far from all hopes will come true. The paradox is that only highly qualified workers can earn real money in the West: programmers, doctors, teachers. They are also needed there, but their situation in Lithuania is often not as catastrophic as that of a manual laborer earning pennies here. Of course, their salaries are incomparable with salaries in the UK, but so are British prices compared with Lithuanian ones.
Based on a study of prices, Lithuania was recognized as the cheapest EU country for business activity. Most educated Lithuanians manage not only to make ends meet but also to put something aside for a rainy day. Qualified programmers live well in Vilnius too, so one must love money more than one's surroundings and country to leave a good life for a very good one by becoming an emigrant.
In the past year, anticipating the possible departure of specialists to the West, the Lithuanian government began raising salaries for public-sector employees. Private businesses are also seeing wage growth. Of course, an increase of $50-100 did not convince some, but it kept others from taking the decisive step.
However, the number of educated emigrants is in no way comparable to the number of uneducated ones. It can be said with confidence that buses to London are packed not with doctors, programmers, and teachers, but with cooks, waitresses, nannies, agricultural workers, hotel cleaners, construction workers, and simply unskilled labor. It is these professions that are in greatest demand.
Recruiters from the consumer countries themselves have flooded into Lithuania: Irish and English firms are recruiting people directly in the Baltic state – for work on English farms, for service in restaurants and hotels, hiring nurses for the sick and children, loaders, security guards, gardeners, etc. Many are looking for seasonal workers.
What money can all this unskilled labor count on? Of course, some qualified construction workers get as much as 10 pounds an hour. However, on average, initial wages range around 4-5 pounds sterling per hour. In the future, they promise to raise them, but the increases are insignificant. For example, in the UK a packer gets on average 5-6 pounds, a dishwasher 4.5-5 pounds, a driver and loader 5-7, a hotel worker tidying rooms 4-6 pounds per hour.
It is not hard to calculate that a person will earn about 200 pounds a week, and about 800-900 a month. Converted to dollars, we have somewhere around $1,500. Of course, the money is impressive, but not for London. And in Lithuania, many whose salaries are already measured in $500-1,000 will think hard before being tempted by such an amount.
Let's try to calculate how much a labor emigrant from Lithuania has left in his pocket after paying living expenses in the UK. If he earns 200-300 pounds a week, then renting accommodation will take 40 to 80 pounds or more; 10-20 or more for food, depending on needs; the metro will cost more than 20 pounds, 10 or more for the phone, etc. And clothes, shoes, toiletries?
It is clear that less than half of what is earned will remain. If one compares this with the situation of the same unskilled worker in Lithuania, where he could barely survive physically, it goes without saying that even saving 50 or 100 pounds will make a person happy. But among the educated workforce in Lithuania there are already many people who, given the difference in prices, save the same or slightly less even with Lithuanian wages. And they do so without leaving their families, retaining the support of their circle and, most importantly, their image.
For example, a university associate professor or a journalist has no reason to go and work as a laborer for such money, and he will not go. Not only will he pay several times more there for a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer than in Vilnius, but he will also be looked down upon, as only the poor who come from a little-known country to earn money are looked down upon. However, in Lithuania an unskilled worker is already treated with contempt, and in emigration he actually loses little.
So labor migration from the new EU countries will most likely be precisely labor migration. Only a few will be able to take a place in the higher strata of Western society. Just as today in France a Portuguese person is habitually associated with a gardener and a watchman, so a Lithuanian for an Englishman, alas, is beginning and will be associated with service personnel.
Whether this is bad or good, this is the reality of the European Union, which we simply have to accept.
Alexander LOTOTSKY.
Vilnius, Lithuania.