Migrants prefer to wait out the crisis abroad
American experts note that the number of migrants from Mexico has decreased almost 4 times, reaching about 175,000 people in March 2009, compared to 653,000 in March 2004-05, the report says. At the same time, researchers report a decline in employment among those who have already emigrated to the country.
The most alarming trend, according to researchers, is the increase in the number of unemployed migrants. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a 26-year high in August at 9.7%. In July, this figure was 9.4% of the total working-age population. In the 16 eurozone countries, the unemployment rate was 9.5% in July.
Typically, during periods of labor market instability, foreign workers are the most vulnerable – they are the first to be laid off. In particular, most migrants work in sectors severely affected by the crisis – construction and services. However, having lost their jobs in a foreign country, migrants are in no hurry to return home, assuming that finding a source of income in their home country will be even more difficult, the report says.
Along with the decrease in the flow of migrants, the volume of remittances sent by foreign workers to their families back home also declined. Thus, since the beginning of 2008, remittances to Turkey fell by 43%, reports Reuters. Remittances accounted for about 1/3 of Moldova's GDP, and accordingly, a 37% drop in the volume of funds transferred from abroad negatively affected the country's economy as a whole.
This trend is not observed everywhere. For example, remittance flows to Bangladesh have increased by 16% since 2008. According to researchers, this indicates that laid-off foreigners continue to work illegally.
In Russia, according to data from the Ministry of Health and Social Development, by the beginning of the first autumn month, registered unemployment reached about 2 million 112 thousand people. According to estimates from the Federal State Statistics Service, the total number of unemployed Russians as of July 2009 was 6.3 million people, or 8.3% of the economically active population. According to Rosstat estimates, by August, total unemployment in Russia had not risen for the fifth consecutive month.
According to the Federal Migration Service, in Q1 2009, 6 million migrants entered Russia, which is 13% less than the same period last year. 'The number of migrants in Moscow is minimal because the construction sites where they mainly worked are closed, they are banned from trading, only the public utilities sector remains,' explained Yevgeny Gontmakher, deputy director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with Gzt.ru.
Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Institute of Globalization Problems, has a different assessment: 'Officially, the share of foreigners is insignificant, even at construction sites, but in reality migrants predominate.' Thus, the expert cites data from the 2002 census, according to which 300,000 Chinese are permanently residing in Russia. Chinese experts, in turn, admit, albeit reluctantly, that there are 2 million Chinese in Russia. In reality, the number could be as high as 3 million, says Delyagin. The expert also noted that there are fewer Chinese in Russia than, for example, Azerbaijanis, Tajiks, and so on.
At the same time, the labor of foreign workers is still in demand. According to Sergei Pyatenko, director of the FBK Economic and Legal School, the Russian workforce is lazy and immobile. 'People want their work brought to them on a silver platter – the kind they want, where they want it, and very well paid,' the expert emphasized at the conference 'Labor Market: A Year in Crisis' organized by Finam. According to Yevgeny Gontmakher, migrants generally do not occupy the niches that Russian citizens fill. 'We have too skilled, too advanced a population for Tajiks to displace our workers,' the expert stressed.
Meanwhile, the worsening economic situation could lead to an increase in the army of the unemployed. This will include illegal migrants who are unlikely to want to return home. 'So far there is no criminal catastrophe, but tensions are rising, there is great fear among the local population, which is exacerbated by the authorities' inability to develop an effective mechanism for deporting illegal aliens to their homeland,' Delyagin emphasized.