As Novye Izvestia writes, this is stated in the latest study by Deutsche Bank. On the other hand, the tourism industry will flourish in Russia, and the beaches of northern Germany will become especially attractive. However, experts advise not to rely on the weather, but to build hotels and promote the country abroad.
Summer heat will become regular in European countries, tsunamis will scare vacationers away from popular beaches, and snow on ski resorts will melt. These and many other consequences of global warming will radically change the tourist map of the world, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank in their report 'Climate Change and Tourism: Where Will the Journey Lead?'
Australia will get the worst of it. Due to rising oil prices, flights there will become more expensive, and due to warming, flooding in coastal areas and forest fires will become more frequent. Also, the corals of the Great Barrier Reef will begin to die, but paradoxically, this is the only thing that will increase the influx of divers into the country. The advertising slogan is already ready: 'Hurry to see the Great Barrier Reef before it disappears!' The reefs near the Maldives, popular with wealthy citizens, will also die off, but that's not a problem, because by that time the Maldives themselves will be flooded.
The horrors don't end there. In Greece, Turkey, Egypt, Spain and Portugal (that is, the most popular destinations for us), the summer heat that killed 35,000 people in 2003 will become regular. Southern Europe has cultural monuments, for which, of course, tourists will still go there. But, firstly, there are not as many attractions as in competitor countries, and secondly, monuments can be visited during less hot times. The most profitable summer season will pass the Mediterranean by. In addition, vacationers will fall out of love with Hungary, because Lake Balaton will become shallower.
Beachgoers will move to the coasts of the North and Baltic seas – primarily to Germany, Denmark and the Baltics. Economists believe that North German beaches will become the most popular in Europe in the future. France and Italy will also not suffer from the European heat and will even benefit slightly, because people go to these countries not for a chocolate tan, but for museums and ancient palaces. Ski resorts located high in the French Alps will not suffer. But those that are low will melt significantly. This applies to Italy, Austria and Germany. The climate in England and Scandinavia will become milder and more pleasant.
Russia will also benefit from warming, but only slightly, since the main flow of foreign tourists goes to Moscow and St. Petersburg, the report says. And the flow of 'cultural' tourists, unlike 'beach' tourists, is not as dependent on climate. 'That is precisely why global warming is the last in a series of problems for our tourism,' Vice President of the Russian Association of Tour Operators Andrei Ignatiev told Novye Izvestia. According to him, since Soviet times, foreigners have known about Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Golden Ring. All other territory is not only unknown to potential clients but also lacks the infrastructure to receive them – primarily roads and hotels.
According to estimates by Professor Richard Tol from the University of Hamburg, thanks to global warming, by the end of the 21st century, the flow of tourists will increase most noticeably to Canada (by 220%), Russia (174%) and Mongolia (174%). The losers will be hot Muslim countries – Mauritania (a decline of 60%), Mali (59%), as well as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (a decline of 55-58%).
Nikolay DZIS-VOYNAROVSKIY. 