Economists are concerned that a second wave of explosions - albeit failed ones - could cause serious damage in the long term, but travel companies do not expect a sharp decline in the number of visitors. “We do not think this will reduce the number of tourists coming to London,” say representatives of the Association of British Travel Agents. “After the incidents of July 7, we did not notice a significant decrease in the number of visitors or a reduction in advance bookings.”
British Airways confirms that the July 7 tragedy did not have a noticeable impact on sales or ticket orders. The company's management believes that this will not happen in the future.
The events of July 21, when attempts were made to blow up three London Underground stations and a bus, came at a very important time for the tourism industry - school holidays. The mayor of the British capital, Ken Livingstone, has already announced a “sharp decline” in the number of Britons coming to London with children from other parts of the country. Anita Thornberry, head of tourism at the London Development Agency, told the BBC that “the effect should manifest itself, but it is too early to say to what extent it will be noticeable.”
On the other hand, economists fear that two series of explosions within just two weeks could deter tourists from visiting London in the future. And although very few booked trips have actually been canceled so far, the situation could worsen in the future, experts believe. “Tourists who are already thinking twice before traveling to the United Kingdom may eventually abandon the intention altogether, given that the events of July 7 were not a one-off,” says Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas. Other observers express concern that the events in London could put additional pressure on an already weakening British economy, which depends heavily on consumers' willingness to spend money and their confidence in stability.
Recent figures show that the country's economic growth rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade. “The question is how long these events will affect people's minds,” says Grant Montague of the consulting firm GfK Martin Hamblin. After July 7, on the weekend in central London, shoppers spent 20% less money than on any other weekend.
Nevertheless, the research group SPSL concluded that the explosions did not have the negative impact on consumer sentiment that analysts initially feared. At the same time, the company believes that it may take up to six months to restore previous consumer demand. New York took a year and a half to fully recover from the September 11 tragedy, say SPSL employees, and Madrid, where several bombs exploded on trains in one day, took six months. However, given the latest London incident, that is, the events of July 21, experts add, it can be assumed that the threat of new explosions will keep people away from crowded shopping streets.
On the day of these events, the number of shoppers in London fell by a quarter compared to the same figure on July 21, 2004. Trading firms point out that the bomb attempts on that day were not made during rush hour and not in places where the largest shops are located. Therefore, it is almost impossible to determine the safest place or time for any trips. Either way, conclude SPSL experts, everything happening is “not the best news for London and its trade.”