Experts are also concerned about new threats related to climate change on Earth: melting Arctic snow could awaken the most mysterious microorganisms, carrying the danger of a return of terrible diseases of past centuries. This problem has a direct bearing on us: it's no secret that it is our compatriots who have transformed into active travelers in recent years, exploring ever new, interesting but dangerous corners of the planet.
The authors of the report 'A Safe Future,' prepared by WHO experts, warn of a sharp increase in the number of viral epidemics. Since the 1970s, 39 new infectious diseases have appeared in the world – one per year. Moreover, the 'novelty' of this year could be an unknown disease that has already claimed over 200 lives in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Local doctors suspect that it is a type of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which is often compared in danger to anthrax. But there has been no official confirmation of this from WHO yet. It is noted that the dynamics of the deadly epidemic's spread are increasing at an alarming rate. The fact that the mysterious fever has struck remote areas of Congo hardly changes the essence of the matter. Given the active participation of Congolese in international air travel, sanitation services of various countries are preparing to take emergency measures.
As early as the 1960s, doctors warned that the rapid growth of air travel worldwide should be accompanied by prompt adoption of preventive measures. Today, the danger that a patient with some exotic infection transmitted by airborne droplets could end up in a major international airport has increased many times over. That WHO experts are not exaggerating the infectious threat is confirmed by numerous reports of flight cancellations or delays due to 'viruses on board.' The recent case is typical: Scandinavian news agencies recently reported online with frightening synchrony about a liner of the Swedish airline SAS that was isolated at Copenhagen's Kastrup Airport. On board was a girl with suspected encephalitis. All passengers were urgently evacuated for medical examination. This time, fortunately, there were no tragic consequences.
Some Western experts, trying to find a recipe for saving humanity from the avalanche-like growth of epidemics, propose setting up medical checkpoints when boarding planes, as well as equipping airports with visual propaganda calling on passengers to be vigilant. However, as the chief epidemiologist of the Swedish State Institute for Infectious Diseases, Annika Linde, told Novye Izvestia, the appeal: 'Healthy person, report the sick one. Sick person, refuse the flight and voluntarily consult a doctor' is dismissed by most specialists as unrealistic.
Most likely, success can only come from the approach recommended by WHO. 'Rich countries should help eliminate pockets of poverty on the planet that lack modern medicines and an effectively functioning healthcare system. Vaccines against the most dangerous diseases should be provided to poor countries at a significant discount or for free,' – this position was voiced at the UN headquarters in New York.
But this path has so far not found a response in the West. In 2004, a secret meeting was held in Stockholm between envoys from a number of African countries led by South Africa and representatives of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies. The African states, where the AIDS epidemic is rampant, sought a reduction in the cost of inhibitory drugs. Otherwise, they threatened to start stamping 'pirate pills.' But, as the Western press sparingly reported, no breakthrough was achieved in the dialogue. The African blackmail did not work; the 'pharmaceutical kings' themselves stated that they could not work at a loss. And representatives of the Black continent were advised to seek help from Western governments and international organizations. However, inertia at the level of state officials is difficult to overcome: the negotiation process has stalled at the level of good intentions.
The cool attitude of developed countries towards the gloomy forecasts of WHO is explained by the fact that many heads of health services in the West believe that they have managed to protect themselves with a reliable wall against foreign infections. Sweden is one such country. Annika Linde reported that statistics for 2002-2006 show that the number of imported diseases leading to infection of other Swedish residents is on the decline. This is due to a good healthcare system that manages to stop most epidemics in their early stages. But, as the deputy chief physician of the clinic of the capital's Institute of Biological Medicine, Vladilena Chernousova, noted, in epidemiological issues one should never adhere to extreme points of view: 'either everything is good or everything is bad.'
Moreover, UN experts warn of an impending threat of epidemics associated with climate change. First of all, we are talking about microorganisms that could awaken from hibernation due to the melting of 'permafrost.' Last week, in an interview with Swedish TV channel TV4, the scientific director of the EU infectious disease service, Johan Giesecke, stated that the main danger is the 'Spanish flu' virus, which killed about 50 million people in the early last century. In the ice of Alaska, Siberia, Svalbard and other areas of the planet with permafrost, the corpses of hundreds of people who died during that epidemic are buried. As excavations carried out several years ago in Svalbard showed, fragments of DNA viruses have been preserved in human remains, based on which these microorganisms can be recreated in laboratory conditions. It cannot be ruled out that somewhere the viruses have been preserved in better condition and can return to life on their own. There is also a risk that with the melting of permafrost, very ancient bacteria may also awaken, against which the human immune system is powerless.
True, other experts disagree with this. As Vladilena Chernousova said: 'Today we may be talking about mutations of viruses that can change the human DNA code. As for the 'revival' of old viruses – this still belongs rather to the realm of science fiction. Viruses in corpses usually do not come back to life.' But 'one can recall those infectious agents that are capable of forming a protective 'antioxidant' shell. For example, the causative agents of tetanus.' Tetanus, of course, is not the 'Spanish flu,' but such assessments do not cancel alarming forecasts.
Alexey SMIRNOV, Alexey ANDREEV.
Novye Izvestia