Last week, the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Rosstat) published operational information on the socio-economic situation in Russia for January-May 2005. As Gazeta.Ru reports, according to specialists, the permanent population of the country as of May 1 amounted to 143.2 million people - that is 286,600 less than at the beginning of the year. That is, Russia's population this year is decreasing by 2,400 per day, or 100 people per hour.
The reduction (already traditional) occurred due to natural population decline: in January-April it increased by 27,000 people compared to the same period last year (if in 2004 it amounted to 292,400 people, then in the current year - 319,400). In January-April, almost 797,000 residents of Russia died, and only 477,500 were born.
Statisticians also noted a decrease in the number of births in 76 regions: compared to the same period in 2004, 20,000 fewer children were born in Russia. But the number of deaths increased in 50 regions and overall exceeded last year's figure by 6,000. According to Rosstat specialists, countrywide there were 1.7 deceased per newborn, and in 26 regions even more (deaths exceeding births by 2-3.1 times). And only in 14 regions of Russia did statisticians record natural population growth in January-April.
Statistics on causes of death have also changed. As it turned out, in Russia fewer people have been dying from external factors (compared to January-April 2004). For example, mortality from transport injuries decreased by about 700 cases. There were even fewer 'accidental alcohol poisonings' with fatal outcomes: if in January-April last year 14,200 residents of Russia died from this cause, then this year only 13,400. The number of suicides and homicides decreased slightly.
But the health of Russia's residents has worsened even more - statistics recorded an increase in mortality from various diseases. The cause of 57.8% of all deaths in Russia in January-April 2005 were diseases of the circulatory system. Compared to the same period last year, the number of deaths from this cause increased by 9,000 people. The number of deaths from respiratory and digestive diseases, as well as some infectious and parasitic diseases, increased.
Migration growth was unable to compensate for the natural population decline, although in January-April 2005 there was an increase in migration growth with almost all CIS member states (except Georgia and Turkmenistan). More than 54,000 people arrived in Russia for permanent residence, while last year only 28,000. The largest number of immigrants relocated from Kazakhstan, Central Asian states, and Ukraine. Fewer people left Russia: about 21,000 (last year - almost 24,000). However, even such migration growth compensated for the numerical population losses by only 10.3%.
Over three years, the country's population decreased by 2 million (in 2002, statisticians counted 145.2 million people). And, as demographers predict, every month there will be fewer and fewer residents in Russia.
According to Rosstat's estimated forecasts, by 2050 Russia's population will decrease by almost half and under an unfavorable scenario will amount to 77 million (under the most favorable - 123 million people). If the current pace continues, the country simply will not survive to the next century. Moreover, as monthly demographic data show, the main cause of the steady extinction of Russians remains low birth rate. According to Rosstat, Russia's population steadily increased from 1897 until 1989, when it reached 147 million people. In subsequent years, due to declining birth rates, the population began to steadily decline. And if in the 1990s migration growth compensated for natural decline by almost 40%, then by the 2000s migration processes slowed down. According to experts, the demographic crisis is obvious. And only an increase in the birth rate can save it.