The fact is that to switch to the euro, a country's economic indicators must comply with the Maastricht criteria. This means that the national currency's exchange rate must be stable for two years, and its fluctuations against the euro during this time must not exceed 15%. Meanwhile, as Gzt.ru notes, the financial crisis has led to a sharp drop in the exchange rates of these countries' currencies.
From July of this year to the present, the Polish zloty has depreciated against the euro by 21%. The Hungarian forint's exchange rate against the euro has fallen by 16% over the same period. The Czech koruna has not yet reached the critical mark — it has fallen by 13%, but the volatility indicator of the koruna/euro pair has tripled. At the same time, experts predict a further decline in these countries' currencies against the euro. 'Over the next three to six months, caution should be exercised in the currency markets of Central Europe,' says Anne Benoit, strategist for local markets at Merrill Lynch in London.
In addition, inflation in a country cannot be higher than the average inflation rate in EU member states. The government sector budget deficit must be less than 3% of GDP. However, in Hungary in October, inflation already exceeded the average indicator of EU member states by 6%. And according to estimates by economist Michał Dybuła of the Warsaw office of BNP Paribas, the Polish government is currently unable to keep its government sector budget deficit below 3% of GDP. He predicts that next year this figure will rise in Poland to 4.8%.
However, in early December, Hungarian Finance Minister János Veres stated that despite the difficulties, Hungary would be able to switch to the euro as early as 2010. But the CEO of Hungary's largest asset management company, OTP Fund Management, István Hamez, called this statement utopian. 'Nobody needs us in this club. Moreover, the structural problems of our economy will be easier to solve outside the euro at this stage,' he said.
An accelerated transition to the euro by Central European countries is not only unnecessary for the EU in the current situation, but could also harm the candidates themselves. 'Undoubtedly, the governments of these countries, for political reasons, seek to join the eurozone as quickly as possible,' says Vladimir Bushuev, head of the investment projects department at Moskommertsbank. 'But from an economic point of view, the benefit is not so obvious. In addition to liberalization of capital and movement of labor, countries receive restrictions on conducting their own financial and economic policies. Even in more stable times, in many EU countries after the transition to the euro, the growth rate of the cost of living exceeded the growth rate of wages, and accordingly there was a decline in the real standard of living of the population.'