It is believed that next year German politicians will still manage to somewhat reduce the flow of people seeking a better life in Germany. However, even considering these incomplete and largely unpredictable data, German economists are now trying to determine an extremely important question for the country's socio-economic development: how much will the refugees cost Germany?
The first such forecast was made by scientists from the authoritative Institute for the World Economy (IfW) located in Kiel. Analysts in their calculations, published on December 11, assumed that the financial cost per refugee is 13,000 euros per year. The Institute's report states that if the number of refugees from 2018 does not exceed 360,000, then the German state's expenses on their financial support and accommodation will amount to about 25 billion euros annually. If, in the period up to 2020, a million refugees continue to arrive in Germany, this amount will increase to 55 billion euros.
However, even in 'the most costly case,' as noted by one of the Institute's directors, Matthias Lücke, the total figure will not exceed two percent of Germany's GDP. 'These costs will remain manageable,' the expert emphasizes. He also noted that the calculations were made taking into account the actual implementation of the goal that the German authorities are currently pursuing. Namely, 30% of the refugees who have arrived in Germany will be extradited back to their countries of origin. Moreover, of the remaining 70% in Germany, about one in five will only be able to obtain a temporary residence permit.
To significantly reduce state expenditures on supporting refugees, German economists recommend that authorities integrate the people who have arrived in Germany into the labor market as quickly as possible. However, the IfW experts themselves admit that this will be extremely difficult. Thus, until 2017, about 470,000 refugees will have the opportunity to work in Germany and earn their own living. However, only one in fifty of them will actually be able to find a job, the economists believe.
Thus, according to the most modest estimates, the number of unemployed in Germany will increase by at least 376,000 by 2017. This figure would be even higher, but a significant number of refugees will not be included in the unemployment statistics that the Federal Employment Agency (BA) presents monthly. This is because some refugees will undergo training in special integration courses as well as advanced training courses, which automatically excludes them from the agency's official statistics.