The worst for world tourism is over, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council. The recovery that was predicted for the market has taken place. According to the council's forecast, demand for tourism services in 2004 will reach $5.5 trillion, increasing by almost 6%. The travel industry will develop much faster than other industries and countries as a whole. Moreover, Asia, mainly China, will set the tone for global development.
The private tourism sector will reach $2.5 trillion in 2004, growing by more than 5%. Business tourism indicators will be somewhat more modest - $595 billion and 4.3% growth. Governments will spend $265 billion on stimulating consumer interest.
The revival in the tourism industry will have a favorable effect on the economies of all countries, given that it adds a total of 3.8% to global GDP directly and more than 10% when indirect effects are also taken into account. The dynamic development of the travel industry will trigger the creation of more than 3 million new jobs in 2004 in the industry alone. But given the interconnectedness with all sectors of the economy, the growth in the number of jobs will reach 10 million.
“Against the backdrop of previous years’ indicators, the dynamics of 2004 inspire strong optimism,” believes WTTC President Jean-Claude Baumgarten. Thus, in 2001-2002, global demand fell by 7.4%. Moreover, the US tourism industry suffered the most then, losing more than $90 billion.
“The last few years have been an extremely difficult ordeal for the industry - everyone, from airlines and transport to retailers, has suffered greatly. Indicators were plunging, jobs were being cut,” says Vince Wolfington, president of Carey International. “As we see, current indicators demonstrate that the industry is finally in good shape.”
As noted by Oxford Economic Forecasting, risks remain high. And the main ones are associated with the continued weakening of the dollar, alarming inflation rates, the constant threat of terrorism, and the acute imbalance of the US economy. European countries will have a much easier time, according to WTTC, primarily due to the strong position of the main currencies - the euro and the pound. True, the Spanish events could greatly affect tourism in that country.
The undisputed leaders of global tourism growth in the next ten years will be Montenegro, India, China, Vietnam, Angola, Laos, Chad, Guadeloupe, Fiji, and Uganda. The CIS countries, unfortunately, did not make it into the top 10 growing tourism “tigers”.