Long-term high immigration slows the growth of the older age group
The number of people entering Germany in 2015 exceeded the number leaving by 900,000. Earlier, the German Interior Ministry reported that Germany accepted 1.09 million refugees in 2015.
As Destatis notes, so-called net immigration of 900,000 people in 2015 was a record compared to 2014, when it amounted to 550,000, and even compared to 1992, when Germany recorded the most massive influx of people after the country's reunification and the fall of the Iron Curtain – 800,000 people. Immigration on such a scale as in 2015 had never occurred in Germany, the statisticians emphasize, adding that these estimates are still clearly understated. Actual figures are higher, but exact numbers will be available only in a few months.
The figures for births and deaths are also not final. According to preliminary data, between 705,000 and 730,000 babies were born in Germany in 2015, while deaths ranged from 905,000 to 930,000. Thus, the estimated deficit between births and deaths is 190,000-215,000 people.
As reported by "Russkaya Germaniya", Destatis simultaneously published its forecast of population trends. The main conclusion: despite immigration, the aging of the German population is irreversible. The number of people over 67 will increase to at least 21.5 million by 2040, which is 6.3 million, or 42%, more than in 2013 (15.1 million).
Moreover, by 2040 the number of working-age people aged 20 to 66 will inevitably decrease (by how much is not specified). But it is noted that without immigration, this age group would decline by 13 million people, or 25% compared to its total in 2013 (if 13 million is 25%, then working-age population in Germany in 2013 was 52 million). To compensate for such a decline, net immigration in this age group would need to be about 470,000 people per year on an ongoing basis.
As follows from the results of thirteen mutually consistent forecasts, the statisticians continue, the total population will decline by 7 to 9 million by 2040, while with an increase in migration to a total of 6.8 million by 2040, the decline will be 4.3 million. Even with a total net migration of 8.5 million people in this age group, its decline will be 5 million. As the indicators of the 1990s clearly show, Destatis emphasizes, long-term high net immigration only slows the growth of the older age group, but does not prevent it.
How many of these "calculated" immigrants will find jobs to feed the growing army of pensioners, not to mention welfare recipients, Destatis naturally does not forecast. But they warn that "special and unforeseen events – such as wars, crises, environmental disasters and their consequences – cannot be taken into account in forecasting."