Ahead of the season, the Russian information service BANCO prepared a rating of popular destinations as a forecast for summer 2004, based on a survey of travel agencies. Although it is still too early to talk about the results of this summer and their coincidence with forecast indicators, market analysts already note the main trends of the season.
So, retail travel agencies gave first place to Turkey, with more than 25% of them currently focusing on this destination. When betting on Turkey this summer, travel agents primarily take into account the results of last summer. The region's high tourism potential, the visa-free regime (no need to obtain a visa at the embassy; it is issued at the border for $20 for a two-month period), and a price-quality ratio suitable for most people do their job - so far the forecast figures for summer 2004 are mostly being met. At the same time, tour operators have been so active that there is a shortage of airlift on the Turkish route, and as a result prices have jumped by about 10%.
Spain takes second place in the ranking of destinations - 10.8%. Its popularity this season is lower than last year's, but still looks quite optimistic compared to the results of summer 2003. Today the volume of tourist flow is about the same as last year. Prices quoted in euros have not changed either. The terrible terrorist attack that occurred in Madrid in early March and negatively affected tourist flows from England and Germany, according to experts, practically did not scare off our tourists. And yet Spain - one of the world's centers of tourism and recreation - continues to lose its position across the CIS.
According to Irina Tyurina, press secretary of the Russian Union of Tourism Industry (RST), a combination of factors influences this: natural and environmental disasters, the activity of Basque extremists, problems with obtaining visas, and the growth of the euro exchange rate. Apparently, because our tourists do not have a noticeable impact on the income of the local tourism market, Spain is rather passive in advertising its resorts in domestic media. In Irina Tyurina's opinion, this also seriously affects the number of vacationers. And today, those operators who just two or three years ago specialized only in Spain are adding additional destinations.
Third place in the ranking went to Egypt. This year, agents rated the summer potential of this country significantly higher than a year ago. The reasons are the high final indicators of last year, a flexible pricing policy, and good advertising. So far, the situation here is stable. The increased volumes of charter airlift on this route fully correspond to demand.
Expecting unprecedentedly low rates and special offers, and also taking into account the success of last season, agents placed Tunisia in fourth place. For now, though, the number of offers significantly exceeds market demand.
Agents' interest in Italy remains at the level of last year - fifth place in the ranking of forecasts. Today the situation on this destination is stable.
Experts call Cyprus the failure of the season. The sixth line in the ranking is an extremely low indicator for this destination. But even this forecast is not being fulfilled. "Cyprus today is half-empty," says Irina Tyurina. "After the introduction of the visa regime on the island (from January 1 this year), expensive and poorly advertised Cypriot resorts have found it even harder to compete with Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia." As Irina Tyurina told Gazeta.Ru, according to her information, the most expensive hotels in Cyprus are already gradually starting to cut prices. And Russian operators are canceling scheduled charters in the regions.
According to Cypriot statistics, after the introduction of the visa regime in the country, the number of our compatriots coming to the island for recreation decreased by 25% compared to the same period last year. That is not surprising: traditionally in our country, the highest share of sales comes from last-minute tours. It is well known how after the introduction of visas in 2002, Bulgaria immediately lost 30-40% of the domestic tourist flow. And only today is it beginning to restore its position with difficulty (11th place in the BANCO rating).
Cypriot media report that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is concerned about the decline in tourist flows from CIS countries. The Cypriot consulate in Moscow even plans to introduce a computerized visa processing system, which, as they say, will significantly simplify and speed up the procedure. But obviously, the effect of the new system can only be expected next year. In the first visa season, as leading operators admit, our tourists will still prefer other destinations where there are no difficulties in obtaining entry documents.