In this situation, the question inevitably comes to the fore: where exactly could our tourists go instead of their popular Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries. The search for an answer to this question, undertaken by Gazeta.Ru, yielded unexpected results.
According to the unanimous opinion of experts, the choice of where to go now for our fellow citizens is not large and is limited to the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, they believe, one should not expect an increase in tourist flow in any one direction.
As Viktor Nechiporenko, general director of the tourist information service “Red Telephone”, told Gazeta.Ru, apart from the traditional Egypt and the Emirates, some people might want to go to Turkey instead of Southeast Asia. Because, “although it is not hot there in winter, it is still warmer than here, and the sea air is also attractive.” And that is all that is in store for our people, he stressed. There is one reason: despite the fact that, having gone abroad for a holiday, citizens spend considerable sums there, when choosing a destination they primarily focus on minimum prices. And this tradition is so strong that even a tsunami cannot break it.
Furthermore, according to Viktor Nechiporenko, other winter holiday destinations on the “from winter to summer” scheme are not as promoted as, say, Thailand. And even if the promotion starts right now, it will bear tangible fruit no earlier than in two or three years, as was the case with the Indian resort of Goa. In general, in Viktor Nechiporenko’s opinion, if a redistribution of the tourist services market does occur, it will only be due to the fact that people who have rested in one place will go to another next time. And, above all, because over the past three years the number of citizens going abroad for holidays has stopped growing and remains at the same level.
Experts are convinced: it is hardly worth expecting that compatriots who are determined to lie on the hot sand in the middle of winter will instead go skiing somewhere in snowy Europe. Nor should one seriously forecast a mass transition to completely new, unfamiliar beach resorts in the western hemisphere – such as Cuba or the Dominican Republic. For most of our tourists they are too expensive and, unlike other regions of the world, are unlikely to become cheaper at the will of tour operators: the lion’s share of the cost of tours to these destinations goes to pay for the flight. So, according to Viktor Nechiporenko, the same Dominican Republic could only become a substitute for Southeast Asia if the standard of living in our country significantly improves. And for that, in his words, tour operators are not counting on much yet.
There is another factor that largely “cuts off” our tourists from beach holidays at resorts in the western hemisphere. As Alexei Duel, an expert of the Russian tourist information service “BANKO”, recalled, it takes a day to fly there, which means this destination is doomed to low tourist flow for us. Moreover, he stressed, “American tourists from the same Southeast Asia will likely flow to these resorts. They will fill all the places there.” So, “if there is some redistribution of popularity of tourist destinations, it will not be due to the emergence of new regions, but in favor of old ones” – the same Middle East and North Africa.
But a holiday in these long-tested countries, Alexei Duel stressed, also has its drawbacks. Granted, “Egypt does not shake and hurricanes do not blow there. But at night it is a bit cold there at this time of year, and besides, one should not forget about Egyptian drivers, who at least once a month crash into something with a necessarily fatal outcome among passengers.”
Therefore, experts believe, our compatriots, as well as tourists from other European countries, will not disappear anywhere and will very soon go to traditional winter resorts – in Thailand and the Maldives. If there is a decline in these destinations, they predict, it will be mild and very short-lived. Even now, Alexei Duel believes, there are not many refusals to fly there, and it is not only about the fear of losing money. According to him, the tourist zone in the southwest of Sri Lanka, unlike the northeast, which took the brunt of the disaster, was practically untouched. Thailand’s infrastructure is also only locally damaged: somewhere the coast is destroyed, and somewhere it is not.
So it is quite possible to go to these countries, he is convinced, “you just need to carefully look when you buy a tour, where exactly the hotel is located,” the expert stressed. Moreover, according to Alexei Duel, even Europeans have begun to gradually return to Southeast Asia, whom local authorities managed to convince of their readiness to provide them with a full and safe holiday right now.
True, unlike Europeans with their insurance, our tourists have no guarantees of getting their money back in case of unforeseen circumstances. On the one hand, it is precisely because of this that many tourists were initially forced to fly “on holiday” to the disaster zone, which had not been properly cleared after the terrible tsunami. On the other hand, the lack of guarantees of money back could also become a restraining factor for buying tours to regions of the world considered dangerous for some reason.
However, Viktor Nechiporenko believes, this too can be fixed. According to him, everything will depend on the policy of tour operators. “If prices drop somewhat,” he is convinced, “then demand will not fall. Then our citizens will not refuse trips to Southeast Asia, but rather try to pay for them as late as possible, thus leaving themselves maximum room for maneuver in case of unforeseen circumstances.” Potential clients have indeed already begun to ask travel agencies “whether Thailand has become cheaper.”
It turns out that the radio listeners’ determination not to go on holiday to Thailand under any circumstances is purely theoretical: in practice, the alternative to a holiday at one of the Thai resorts for our compatriots is, perhaps, a holiday at another of the Thai resorts.