According to estimates by the Communist Party of China, the 'one family, one child' policy, which has recently become the subject of heated debate in the government, has prevented the country's population from growing by 400 million people in the 30 years since its introduction.
Critics note that the ban on having more than one child has led to a gender imbalance: the birth of a boy is more preferable, and if a girl is expected, couples often decide to have an abortion. And most importantly, the 'one child' policy will inevitably lead to a demographic catastrophe: the number of working-age people is decreasing, and in the near future they will not be able to meet the needs of China's elderly citizens. The support of officials for the use of harsh methods to enforce this law negatively affects how the Chinese population views this policy, as well as the country's image abroad.
Two weeks ago, statements by Zhao Baige, deputy head of the State Commission on Demographic Policy and Family Planning, gave rise to press reports about the authorities' supposed plan to repeal the current law. 'We want these changes to be gradual,' she said. The commission hastened to clarify that changes should not be expected in the near future, and an official representative of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, which opened its annual session in early March, stressed that currently only the possibility of revising the family planning policy is being studied.
At the beginning of last week, the head of the demographic policy committee, Zhang Weiqing, clearly determined to put an end to speculation, gave an interview to China Daily. He stated that any change in demographic policy would be considered only after the completion of the current peak in birth rates in the country, that is, in 10 years.
Nevertheless, it is quite likely that the gradual shift from the 'one family, one child' principle to a more flexible demographic policy will continue. China's provinces have certain opportunities to set their own rules, and many Chinese already have the legally enshrined right to have two children.