It is still quite difficult to predict what awaits tourists this summer
How the coronavirus pandemic will change global tourism, whether it will be possible to go somewhere on vacation this summer, and how the current crisis will affect the cost of travel? These and other questions were answered in an interview with Deutsche Welle by Ulf Sonntag, an expert at the Institute for Tourism and Resort Research in Northern Europe.
– The World Tourism Organization predicts that in 2020 the number of tourists worldwide will decrease by a third – from 1.4 to 1 billion people. Has there ever been such a decline in this sector?
– No, not in this form. And I would say that the figures cited by this organization may be too optimistic. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) assumes that the number of tourists in the world this year could fall by 40-70 percent.
– Do you think we will have to spend our vacation at home this year, without the opportunity to travel?
– It all depends on the political framework conditions, and it is very difficult to predict what they will be. The political will among those who make key decisions apparently exists. There are also initial scenarios of who and in what order will be allowed to visit tourist regions again.
First, those who have their own housing in these regions will be allowed to do so. Then tourists who will stay overnight, and then those who come without overnight stays. I hope that from mid or late May we will see the first signs of a resumption of foreign tourism. But when we will again be able to freely cross the borders of other states is really difficult to say at the moment.
– At German resorts on the Baltic and North Seas, hotel owners are thinking about providing only every second bed for tourist purposes to prevent mass crowding of tourists. From Italy came a proposal to isolate sunbeds on the beach and tables in restaurants using plexiglass boxes. How realistic is all this?
– Until a vaccine for coronavirus appears, we will have to maintain the prescribed distance from each other. So it is not surprising that such plans are emerging now.
How can large crowds in a confined space be prevented? One possible solution is to rent out only every second room in a hotel. Or open only every second hotel. Or make sure that people on the beach are not too close to each other. Whether plexiglass boxes will be a way out of the situation needs to be examined in detail. But, in any case, this example shows what creative and innovative attempts are being made to save the tourism industry.
– Let's look a little further. Many are interested in the question of when we will again be able to travel without any restrictions. What conditions must be met for this?
– I assume that borders for tourists will open only at the very end of the gradual return to normal life. Maybe it will happen first here in Europe. For this to happen globally, a vaccine against coronavirus must first appear or an effective treatment must be developed.
– After the pandemic ends, will we travel the world as calmly and carefree as before, or will tourist behavior change, and will humanity abandon mass tourism altogether?
– In almost any society, at least in Europe, tourism is part of normal life. And people will be very happy to have the opportunity to travel again. To what extent they can afford it depends on how severely we are affected by the economic crisis that is a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic. But overall, the need to catch up in terms of tourism will be very high.
Although it is difficult to predict whether people will travel as before, or whether many will draw certain conclusions for themselves. The current discussion in the tourism sector is about how to make tourism more qualitative. Tourism companies and their partners in the regions are now using the time to make their offerings more environmentally friendly, if finances allow. If there is a chance to reorient the tourism sector and change the tourism product, now is the best moment for it. But whether we will at least partially abandon mass tourism as we know it now after the coronavirus pandemic is not yet known.
– Due to the coronavirus and its consequences, many travel agencies and enterprises in this sector have gone bankrupt, leading to less competition in the market. Does this mean that after the pandemic, travel will become more expensive?
– It is certainly very painful that many enterprises in the tourism industry have gone bankrupt. But not only will competition decrease – demand will initially also decline. Because people will be afraid to spend money. Therefore, we assume that prices will not rise very much, but we should not expect big discounts either.