Their own patients and victims are beginning to appear in other European countries as well. For example, in Germany. At a hospital in Leipzig, a 56-year-old UN medical worker, Sudanese by nationality, who had worked and become infected in Liberia, died. Even the experimental drug tested on him did not save him.
It is not surprising that West Africa is quickly being forgotten not only by German tourists but also by businessmen who are rapidly winding down all operations in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea and suspending joint projects.
The fastest way for the virus to spread is through the air. Mankind's pride – aviation – could now do it a great disservice. Many thousands of flights each day carry millions of passengers, creating a very real threat of the epidemic spreading across the globe and turning into a global pandemic.
A group of scientists from the reputable Max Planck Institute for Informatics in Saarbrücken, led by Glenn Loyer, determined the risk of Ebola spreading by air through airports. To do this, they developed an algorithm based on the congestion of the airport where a passenger infected with Ebola appeared, the flight destinations, and the capacity of airliners. On the institute's website, you can view an interactive map that shows the probability of contracting the fever through airports around the world.
German scientists calculated 3,458 airports through which 68,820 commercial flights depart daily, and 171 types of airliners.
The risk of contracting Ebola is highest, as one might guess, in the world's busiest airports. For example, at the airports of Frankfurt, Atlanta, and Beijing. Moscow is not far behind, with the risks at Domodedovo higher than at Vnukovo. The opposite picture is seen in remote small airports such as Mount Pleasant in the Falkland Islands, where the probability of infection is almost zero.
Incidentally, the map is not only informative but also practical, because it helps to chart, if not a safe route, then at least to reduce the likelihood of infection with the terrible virus for those who actively use air travel.
Starting Wednesday, special checks for the Ebola virus will begin at London's Heathrow Airport. In the United States and Canada, such checks have already become routine, although many epidemiologists express doubts about their usefulness. Nevertheless, they can certainly help to at least slightly increase the probability of detecting infected passengers.
In the war that humanity is currently waging against merciless Ebola, all rules are fair. This disease is merciless. Therefore, forecasts for the near future are not very optimistic. According to the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of victims has come close to 4,500 (4,447), and the number of infected to 9,000 (8,914). However, in the very near future, within two months, if a cure is not found, the number of infected will rise from one thousand per week now to 10 thousand! Accordingly, the number of fever victims will also increase sharply.
One can only hope for the imminent emergence of an effective drug against Ebola. Many countries' scientists are participating in the race for it, including China. In Beijing, they hope for a breakthrough soon. One of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the Celestial Empire, Sichuan Pharmaceutical, has acquired a license for an experimental vaccine developed at the Chinese Military Medical Academy.
Sergey MANUKOV.
«Expert Online»