Spain, one of the world's centers of tourism and recreation, experienced the bloodiest terrorist attack in its history on March 11. The tragedy occurred on the eve of the new tourist season. This is a serious psychological blow (not only for Spaniards, but also for those who planned to spend their vacation in this country again or for the first time). Gazeta.Ru asked tourism industry experts how strongly the explosions in Madrid would affect Spain's tourism industry.
Based on the sad experience of recent years, it can be concluded that terrorist attacks have an extremely negative impact on global tourism. In general, recently, and largely due to the wave of terrorism, there has been a general, albeit slight, decline in tourist flows around the world. However, representatives of domestic travel companies believe that it is difficult today to predict how the attack will affect tourism to Spain.
Immediately after the event itself, tourists were wary. There were no refusals of tours. True, in the first two or three days some companies saw trips rescheduled to other dates, but after a week demand resumed. If the flow of tourists to Spain decreases this summer, it will be only slightly, most tour operators suggest.
This is also explained by the fact that the explosions occurred when the tourist season had not yet begun, and by the fact that Madrid is not a center of attraction for our tourists. "Sightseeing tours of cities (including Madrid, Barcelona) account for less than 1% of the entire flow of domestic tourists to Spain," noted Tatyana Chuvilkina, deputy general director of the Russian company Natali-Tours.
But the main reason is a well-known phenomenon called "the bravery of domestic tourists." This bravery, as past years have shown, is inversely related to the price of a particular tour package.
According to Andrei Shmelkov, development director at VKO Travel, the terrorist attacks in Spain will affect European travelers to a greater extent (and not only trips to Spain, but also to other countries). "Tourist panic passes faster here than among Europeans," Mr. Shmelkov believes. When choosing summer vacations, domestic tourists will take into account a combination of factors, including the price of the trip.
"The attack only added to the list of reasons for the decline in tourism to Spain, which has been falling for three consecutive years," noted Irina Tyurina, representative of RST. "The decline in tourist flow was influenced by natural and environmental disasters, statements by Basque extremists about attacks on Spanish resorts, and the rise of the euro exchange rate, which caused an increase in prices for vacations in that country. There are also problems with obtaining visas." Irina Tyurina also considers Spain's passivity in advertising its tourism on the domestic market to be an important factor influencing the decline in tourist flow.
And Tatyana Chuvilkina suggests that in the new tourist season Spain will become just one of the calmest places for relaxation: "This assumption is based, among other things, on statements by representatives of the Basques and Al-Qaeda. In February of this year, the Basque separatist group ETA announced a suspension of terrorist activity in Catalonia. After the election of a new government in Spain (March 14), Al-Qaeda stated that there would be no more attacks in the country."
But there is another opinion. "Our tourists will be scared off by the tragedy in Spain," suggests Olga Betyutskaya, head of the Spanish department of PAC.Group. True, according to her, "if the Spaniards notice an outflow of European tourists, they will reduce prices." And this, naturally, can compensate for the fear factor for us.
"Representatives of the Spanish tourism business were ready to reduce prices even before the attack," Andrei Shmelkov said. In his opinion, after the tragedy in Madrid, the flow of European tourists may decrease further. However, it is difficult to talk about a serious reduction in prices at Spanish resorts, believes Andrei Shmelkov. In his estimation, Spain this year "simply will not become more expensive." Which, we add on our own, is already quite a lot against the backdrop of price increases expected this summer at many resorts.
"For objective reasons, the price index at Spanish resorts grows by 3-5% annually. But this year the price level is unlikely to change," agrees Tatyana Chuvilkina. "Recently, there has generally been an absence of price increases for European tours (including to Spain). This is due to some outflow of tourists because of the rise in the euro exchange rate."
And the euro exchange rate has risen noticeably compared to last year, and air tickets to Spain have also become more expensive. According to Irina Tyurina, in this regard, some travel agencies this year are generally refusing offers for Spain. "At the same time, other tour operators, through their own capabilities (reducing profits), are trying not to raise prices and maintain tourism to Europe, in particular to Spain, in order to have offers in many destinations in their portfolio," reported Olga Sidorova, head of the Spain and Andorra department of VAO Intourist.
Today, prices for tours to Spain range from 270 to 400 euros for a weekly trip (plus visa processing), depending on the chosen hotel and travel time. In peak season (May holidays, August, early September), a hotel costs 30% more than at other resort times of the year (for example, in the second half of May or late September). These are average prices. There is no upper limit for rest, just as there is no limit for perfection.
So, a survey of experts led us to the following conclusions: if the terrorists calm down, domestic tourists will still go to Spain this summer. Especially since prices at local resorts, if they don't fall, will at least not rise. This is better than any advertising - especially since holidays at other favorite resorts of ours (in Turkey, for example) will definitely become more expensive this year.