So far, China was considered the main 'supplier of children' in the world: today Chinese make up almost a third of all humanity - 2 billion people, of which 1.318 billion live in China, and the rest are scattered across the planet. However, the strict measures taken by the third consecutive Chinese government aimed at limiting birth rates will, according to the authors of the forecast, fully take effect: by 2050, China's population will increase by only 9% - to 1.437 billion people. Furthermore, the situation in the Celestial Empire will also be affected by such a factor as the transition from the status of 'Developing Country' to 'Industrial': as practice shows, in any country industrialization and rising living standards tend to reduce birth rates.
Thus, it is not surprising that the German scientists have recorded as leaders in birth rates not China at all, but Africa. According to statistics, the Black continent is currently inhabited by 944 million people, but by 2050 there will be 2 billion – more than double the increase. Currently, as statistical data show, on average each woman in African countries has five children. It should be noted that this refers to all women: both those who give birth and those who remain childless. This means that on average, every woman of productive age in Africa gives birth to far more than five children.
Such a rapid population growth is simply unsustainable for mostly poor and underdeveloped African states. The vast majority of them do not have the slightest opportunity to meet the basic needs of their inhabitants, so they become completely dependent on outside assistance. And here, by and large, no amount of money would suffice – the huge sum of humanitarian aid of €60 billion adopted in June in Heiligendamm by the leaders of the G7 (Russia does not participate in financial aid to Africa) turns out to be completely insignificant against the backdrop of a much larger need. Currently, in sub-Saharan Africa, every fourth child under five years old is starving.
A similar situation is developing to varying degrees in most developing countries. As a result of the demographic explosion, most of these states have no hope even of an effective fight against poverty and hunger. The head of the 'Population of the Earth' project, Dr. Renate Bähr, called on Western governments to redirect part of the humanitarian funds to the development of targeted family planning and reproductive health programs – areas that have so far received minimal funding. Overall, the specialists from Hanover predicted that by 2050, in developing countries (excluding China), the population will increase by 62% – from the current 4.1 billion people to 6.6 billion.
As for industrial and post-industrial countries, their population will also grow, but not as much and not everywhere. Overall, the 'golden billion' will increase from the current 1.22 billion people to 1.25 billion – only by 30 million, with most of the population growth in these countries occurring in the United States and Canada. Here scientists forecast an increase from 335 to 462 million people.
The countries of the European continent (including Russia and Turkey) are expected to see a decrease in the number of inhabitants from a total of 733 million to 669 million. Currently, Europeans make up 11% of the total world population – by 2050, according to researchers, they will remain only 7%. The leaders in population growth in Europe will be, above all, Sweden, Spain and Italy. Birth rates will also increase in Turkey, Greece, Norway and, paradoxically, in Germany: in 2007, positive population growth was recorded there for the first time and scientists believe that this trend in the Federal Republic of Germany will continue. In other countries, the population growth rate will be either zero or, as in the United Kingdom, France, Russia and a number of Eastern European countries, negative.
Based on the data obtained, the 'Population of the Earth' foundation predicts a sharp increase in migration flows worldwide, and their routes will become increasingly diverse. Migration pressure on 'traditional' countries will intensify. Europe, for example, according to the authors of the forecast, is facing such an assault that compared to it, the current multi-million flows of 'illegals' will seem like a weak trickle. It should be noted that by 'Europe' the researchers mean the entire European continent – and therefore Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern European countries, which until now have received only a small share of the total number of African and Asian migrants heading to the Old Continent. According to German scientists, this wave will not even spare Belarus and Albania. Furthermore, they predict that potential migrants from Africa and the Middle East will 'discover'... China: despite the high population density in this country, the standard of living there will rise so much that it will become attractive to residents of the poorest African and Arab states.
Boris ALTNER.
IA Rosbalt