Indeed, in 1998 the German team performed very poorly at the World Cup in France, and Helmut Kohl, who had ruled the country for 16 years, lost the election. The Christian Democratic government of Gerhard Schröder that replaced him, according to all forecasts, was not supposed to "survive" the 2002 elections, as it had failed to fulfill a single election promise in four years. However, the German footballers won the "silver" at the 2002 World Cup in Seoul... and Schröder defeated his opponent Edmund Stoiber by a ridiculous margin of 5,000 votes (out of 61 million German citizens eligible to vote). When the players of the German national team suddenly began tripping over their own shoelaces and losing one friendly match after another, early elections were called, and the first woman chancellor, Angela Merkel, came to power.
Of course, one can laugh at such a "theory," but it clearly demonstrates how seriously Germans take football. One can imagine how thoughtfully and consistently, with their famous Teutonic thoroughness, they set about preparing for the 2006 World Cup. "Die Welt zugast bei Freunden" - "The World a Guest among Friends" - is the official motto of this championship, and the Germans are doing everything they can to make guests feel welcome: they are building new stadiums and hotels, and in the cities where the games will be held, there is explosive development of infrastructure designed for tourists.
Economists seriously believe that the July championship could give a powerful boost to Germany's stagnating economy and bring it at least 2% growth in gross national product (in 2005 this figure was 1.7%). Not only various, so to speak, "official" entrepreneurs but also representatives of illegal structures expect to make good money. According to police, by summer about 40,000 prostitutes may be brought to Berlin alone, and half of them are so-called "Zwangsprostituierte" - women forced into prostitution, mostly brought from Eastern European countries and the CIS.
Law enforcement agencies clearly realize that they cannot cope with such an influx alone, so they have already launched an unprecedented propaganda campaign. In newspapers, on television, in leaflets, and via posters, the police have addressed Germans and future guests of the championship with a rather unusual request: if in July they happen to visit any "establishment," they are asked to take a very close look at the girls offered. At the slightest suspicion that they may be forced into prostitution, they are asked to contact the police. This initiative, by the way, was supported by many famous athletes, whose word is law for fans.
Alas, it must be admitted that preparations for the World Cup are continually marred by recurring problems. No sooner had the organizers begun selling tickets super-protected against counterfeiting and "black" sales than they received an official accusation from the German Consumer Union of unfair practice: the money for the tickets sold was to be received from buyers long before the latter became their holders.
No sooner had the "ticket scandal" subsided than a "stadium scandal" arose: the same Consumer Union carried out an expert examination of five new sports arenas and declared that they were in almost emergency condition.
Tens of thousands of volunteers signed up for the competition to earn the right to participate in the opening ceremony of the championship at Berlin's Olympic Stadium (and they were not even promised money for it). However, after the competition was completed and its winners began training, FIFA banned holding this event in the German capital, because its participants would have so damaged the grass cover of the football field that it would simply be impossible to hold the first game on it. Berlin authorities are still trying to change the situation, but Munich is already breathing down their necks, having decided to intercept the ceremony and hold it at its own venue.
Another problem is bird flu. The epidemic is spreading in Germany at an alarming rate. Within three weeks, seven federal states have already been hit, and FIFA is seriously considering the possibility of banning the championship altogether this year if people start dying from bird flu. However, it is unlikely to come to that.
Nevertheless, the same economists who had predicted 2% GNP growth for Germany in connection with the championship have now issued a very unpleasant forecast: if the 2006 World Cup falls through, it will bring Germany huge losses, and moreover, the business climate in the country will be depressed for years to come. The same thing, but in a milder form, could happen if the German national football team does not make it past the group stage. Judging by how it conducted its friendly game with the Italians (a 1:4 defeat), such a scenario is quite likely.
Amid all these troubles, the German police received some small cause for joy. As is known, the bronze medalist of the 2002 World Cup, the Turkish national team, will not come to the championship after losing in the qualifying tournament, and thus the huge army of potential Turkish fans living in Germany will join the ranks of German team supporters, eliminating the danger of mass brawls with Germans "on ethnic grounds."
But then a new danger arose: according to German intelligence, during the World Cup about three hundred "guests" from Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan intend to visit Germany, and by no means as fans. All of them are members of terrorist groups and, as German special services claim, are planning to carry out a series of terrorist attacks. In this regard, law enforcement agencies intend to ask for help from army units. However, the German Constitution forbids the Bundeswehr from taking on police functions inside the country.
At the moment, the Bundestag is holding one session after another, looking into the possibility of amending the Basic Law, but many Germans take a very negative view of this. Even the idea of involving NATO stratospheric AWACS reconnaissance aircraft to protect the World Cup, which has long been common practice in various EU countries, does not particularly please Germans - they immediately ask the question: "And who will pay for this?" The July championship is gradually turning for Germany into a real Shakespearean drama, and whether it will end with a Hollywood happy ending is unknown.
Boris ALTNER.
IA Rosbalt