Due to the demographic crisis, Japan may allow migrants in
A report prepared by demographers urges the government to prepare in advance for the consequences of a steady population decline, which will manifest everywhere, including pension provision and healthcare, which are already working under considerable strain. It is expected that the average life expectancy of Japanese men will rise to 84.95 years by 2065, and Japanese women to 91.35. In 2015, these figures were 80.75 and 86.98 years respectively. In half a century, the share of Japanese men and women over 65 will rise to 38.4% of the total population. In half a century, Japanese under 14 will make up 10.2%. In 2015, these figures were 26.6% and 12.5% respectively.
As Expert Online notes, the bleakest point of the forecast for both economists and authorities is that in 2065, each pensioner over 65 will be supported by only 1.2 working Japanese. In 2015, there were more than two – 2.1. The birth rate, one of the main indicators for population forecasting, was 1.45 in 2015. In 2024, according to the forecast, it will drop to 1.42, but by 2065 it should rise to 1.44.
The Japanese government pays very close attention to demographics. Population forecasts are published every five years. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe considers demographics one of the priority tasks of his cabinet and intends to raise the birth rate to 1.8 per Japanese woman from the current 1.4. In his opinion, population decline is not a heavy burden, but a reason to increase labor productivity through innovation and, first of all, robotization of industry and the introduction of artificial intelligence.
Many developed countries have problems with a shrinking population. Japan differs from the vast majority in that it does not want (at least for now) to follow the generally accepted path of dealing with demographic problems – to compensate for population losses through migrants.
The population decline has already affected many Japanese cities and villages. First of all, the authorities and the economy have felt it because the amount of taxes collected is decreasing and the working-age population is shrinking. For example, the administration of the city of Shizuoka, located halfway between Tokyo and Nagoya, announced last week that the population has for the first time fallen below 700,000 people and stood at 699,421 as of April 1 this year. Currently, there are about two dozen such cities in the Land of the Rising Sun that are asking the federal government to compensate for the decline in taxes.
Young people leave Shizuoka to study and work in Tokyo or Nagoya. The situation is difficult even in the capital of Japan, despite the fact that it attracts young people from all over the country like a magnet. According to the government's November forecast, Tokyo's population will shrink to 11.73 million by 2060, i.e., decrease by 13% compared to 2015.